Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6be3a3a4d10c128211a0a430e44de4b66e7e9f7ab02a0393f1f4ad924ad980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,275,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,201,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,275,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb464…caf8backed Yes | 2c | 98,079$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 20c | 97,665$19,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,482.73 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 25c | 51,562$13,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,051.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 60c | 51,097$30,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,300.62 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 25c | 41,507$10,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,333.38 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 35c | 40,098$13,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,962.21 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 17c | 37,776$6,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330.35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 69c | 35,811$24,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,250.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130a…b35abacked No | 64c | 32,344$20,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,643.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…a6d6backed Yes | 36c | 32,344$11,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,643.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…b11ebacked Yes | 28c | 30,502$8,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,643.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…41d9backed Yes | 30c | 28,905$8,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,671.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…965fbacked No | 70c | 28,905$20,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,671.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 28,459$21,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,891.02 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 26,955$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.26 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 25,098$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.43 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 29c | 23,028$6,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,588.63 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 41c | 21,858$8,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,854.39 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 33c | 21,090$6,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,922.44 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 16,895$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,413.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 64c | 16,552$10,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.93 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 40c | 16,116$6,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,397.35 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 63c | 15,830$9,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,862.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 58c | 14,745$8,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,139.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 70c | 13,913$9,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 79c | 13,655$10,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.37 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 34c | 13,468$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.15 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 36c | 13,082$4,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,767.85 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 66c | 12,731$8,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,364.61 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 16c | 12,067$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.38 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…b30fbacked Yes | 17c | 12,062$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 70c | 10,457$7,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.13 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 9c | 10,400$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 67c | 9,871$6,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210.91 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 77c | 9,451$7,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.84 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 80c | 9,183$7,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.58 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 67c | 8,774$5,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.17 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 65c | 8,478$5,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.26 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 78c | 8,241$6,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 65c | 8,200$5,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 26c | 8,048$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed No | 73c | 8,000$5,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 54c | 7,900$4,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.89 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2292…304ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,642$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 7,407$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.84 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 36c | 7,161$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 6,793$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.99 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…74d6backed No | 80c | 6,386$5,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 73c | 6,281$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.31 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 54c | 5,753$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,098.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 72c | 5,591$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.24 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 73c | 5,344$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.36 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 72c | 5,209$3,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…8887backed Yes | 2c | 5,146$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 10c | 4,935$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.1 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed No | 64c | 4,887$3,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 23c | 4,850$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 34c | 4,701$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.17 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 4,441$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.46 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed No | 37c | 4,220$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 35c | 4,169$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 13c | 4,047$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…964bbacked Yes | 14c | 4,040$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,917$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.24 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 64c | 3,915$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.35 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 42c | 3,835$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.68 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 34c | 3,831$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.78 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…e9bfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,814$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…7f9dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,723$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 18c | 3,716$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 72c | 3,683$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.23 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 62c | 3,589$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.81 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 73c | 3,589$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 59c | 3,564$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed No | 34c | 3,453$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.27 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…4e89backed Yes | 15c | 3,425$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked No | 71c | 3,400$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 70c | 3,331$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.75 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 46c | 3,318$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.77 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 48c | 3,310$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 76c | 3,310$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.1 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 3,185$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 9c | 3,147$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.93 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 8c | 3,123$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 12c | 3,091$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.07 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 43c | 3,068$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 19c | 3,026$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 26c | 3,011$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.49 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…d3b8backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 32c | 2,999$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eff…e593backed No | 75c | 2,951$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 44c | 2,790$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,703$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.52 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,697$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.