Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b384b7a56c41e7181d207e3a46e54dd1d1805200e976abfb8f621fd3dfd37c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,052,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,113,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,052,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 100,021$18,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,735.44 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 60c | 86,088$51,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,625.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda93…f09cbacked Yes | 40c | 83,554$33,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,421.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 61,649$5,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,562.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 49,329$5,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,720.44 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 42c | 48,916$20,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,722.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 2c | 40,020$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 69c | 37,056$25,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,567.97 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 13c | 34,785$4,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,454.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 17c | 33,659$5,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,586.64 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 22c | 32,274$7,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,229.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 70c | 27,497$19,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,249.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 20c | 27,030$5,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.89 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 63c | 24,805$15,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,135.35 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…ae5ebacked Yes | 16c | 23,710$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 78c | 21,870$17,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,851.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 32c | 20,300$6,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,460.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 76c | 18,764$14,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,440.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 18,232$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.2 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 12c | 18,157$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 21c | 17,251$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed No | 55c | 15,029$8,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,831.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…03f5backed No | 77c | 14,298$10,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…5ba1backed Yes | 7c | 14,029$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 16c | 13,546$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…2f9abacked Yes | 45c | 12,983$5,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,822.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 12,368$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 11,231$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.05 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…11afbacked Yes | 9c | 11,145$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 9,988$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.12 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 13c | 9,631$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 11c | 9,510$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes | 13c | 9,264$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,558$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 13c | 8,536$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.35 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 17c | 8,494$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 5c | 6,492$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…c697backed Yes | 1c | 6,196$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 10c | 5,940$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.05 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2220backed Yes | 24c | 5,731$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,393$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked No | 80c | 5,359$4,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,222$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 5,070$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 16c | 4,999$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 16c | 4,707$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.76 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…b9bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,594$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 1c | 4,316$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 3c | 4,181$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 68c | 4,145$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.11 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 17c | 3,707$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…278dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,685$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,646$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 46c | 3,523$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,406$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 11c | 3,333$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…16a5backed Yes | 21c | 3,305$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,292$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 31c | 3,089$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 64c | 3,015$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed Yes | 1c | 2,955$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 18c | 2,800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 15c | 2,800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 2,756$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…9c89backed Yes | 5c | 2,611$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 35c | 2,500$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…8ce9backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 10c | 2,473$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 26c | 2,358$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…17b4backed Yes | 18c | 2,343$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 14c | 2,282$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,222$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,140$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…c011backed Yes | 19c | 2,091$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 78c | 2,068$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…71a2backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +370.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 26c | 1,999$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 10c | 1,976$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 1,869$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 45c | 1,815$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,686$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 1,613$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 4c | 1,598$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 75c | 1,500$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 57c | 1,500$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.22 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,464$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,415$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,405$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 80c | 1,300$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,231$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,224$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.