TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,286,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,273,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,286,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes45c185,809$82,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,855.2637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes2c178,057$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.3719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No51c121,820$62,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,669.124257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No59c116,232$68,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,045.765141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf37…51ecbacked Yes46c103,398$47,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,552.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes47c102,715$48,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,122.118137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No53c84,259$45,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,189.9135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes33c77,108$25,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,326.518617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes36c71,167$25,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,458.0616743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes40c55,000$21,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,75013823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes45c49,224$22,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,180.492748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No74c48,116$35,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,286.931656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6627…898bbacked Yes35c47,055$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,500450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No72c44,157$31,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,173.724835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No52c43,500$22,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,740.681643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes17c41,683$7,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,292.8917018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No66c38,151$25,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,031.012360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No58c36,808$21,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,572.127247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59cf…4275backed Yes41c35,052$14,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,472.211070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+126%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No65c32,784$21,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,619.4928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes69c32,412$22,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,311.937462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No62c32,065$19,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,252.875042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda82…eb29backed Yes26c31,306$7,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,989.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+45%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No53c29,752$15,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,857.3713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed No69c28,453$19,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,728.652373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes40c28,383$11,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,285.7642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed Yes56c27,412$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,399.881540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290e…f979backed Yes43c26,830$11,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,468.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes31c25,780$7,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,917.57538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes34c25,415$8,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,705.6627233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes9c25,241$2,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.0970%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes39c24,122$9,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,337.012832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No45c23,999$10,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,103.2412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes42c22,807$9,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,644.223941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No50c22,258$11,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,031.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No79c22,150$17,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,626.599154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No39c21,974$8,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,459.2136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes18c21,919$3,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,948.18387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes7c21,826$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.764425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No77c20,764$16,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,756.112157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No64c20,492$13,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,381.8620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes32c20,159$6,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,476.64835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes48c19,599$9,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,422.777940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes52c19,588$10,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,148.984050%20 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…b841backed No56c19,581$10,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,661.61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes23c19,343$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,418.0212245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes56c18,538$10,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,405.536440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No65c18,258$11,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,458.471553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No76c17,489$13,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,269.586254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No61c17,032$10,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,704.9627047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa12f…3322backed Yes53c16,749$8,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,836.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfb…de50backed Yes34c15,492$5,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,203.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No44c14,724$6,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,315.8640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No55c14,665$8,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,556.128749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes45c14,165$6,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,439.024119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No53c14,001$7,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,535.7121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes49c13,557$6,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,575.536546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes49c12,966$6,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,334.879642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes48c12,637$6,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,053.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes31c12,560$3,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.065913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked No55c12,364$6,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,514.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No65c12,166$7,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,209.352055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes44c11,749$5,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,152.173050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c40…4f48backed No59c11,648$6,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,755.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+98.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ea…6879backed Yes48c11,454$5,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,506.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed No64c11,454$7,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.362055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd2…87b1backed No78c11,452$8,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c11,100$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec6…33f2backed No50c11,000$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,509.991250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74c…1076backed Yes48c10,977$5,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,315.91526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes52c10,880$5,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,615.373033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55fb…d913backed Yes53c10,825$5,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,717.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes20c10,708$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1901650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c10,670$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.3342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes30c10,269$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.743336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c9,855$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes46c9,754$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,504.338143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes0c9,560$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.012078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a0…9524backed No55c9,478$5,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xface…0572backed Yes59c9,309$5,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,475.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No54c9,074$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.071060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes27c8,898$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes35c8,856$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.2117740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a3f…1eeebacked Yes80c8,775$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53c5…cce6backed Yes38c8,759$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,356825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c8,673$5,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,054.9167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No71c8,672$6,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.047558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No73c8,380$6,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.123438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84e6…90b0backed No70c8,244$5,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes31c8,100$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.6920336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99c…725ebacked Yes31c8,052$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.151225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes35c8,029$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,795.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0a…e004backed Yes46c8,005$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes39c7,947$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.8511350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ad2…54bdbacked No63c7,932$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No65c7,857$5,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.2312654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4d53…c3cbbacked No64c7,758$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…4d49backed Yes37c7,743$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.132548%12 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No74c7,573$5,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.7312524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No54c7,461$4,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,416.0122547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.