Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a49f044960fb16a4bb3ef0fb97ea3427092f4f860f6fbff74b829af7d64aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,286,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,273,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,286,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 45c | 185,809$82,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,855.26 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 2c | 178,057$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.37 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 51c | 121,820$62,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,669.12 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 59c | 116,232$68,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,045.76 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…51ecbacked Yes | 46c | 103,398$47,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,552.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 47c | 102,715$48,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,122.11 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 53c | 84,259$45,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,189.91 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 33c | 77,108$25,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,326.51 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 36c | 71,167$25,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,458.06 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 40c | 55,000$21,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,750 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 45c | 49,224$22,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,180.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 74c | 48,116$35,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,286.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…898bbacked Yes | 35c | 47,055$16,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 72c | 44,157$31,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,173.72 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 52c | 43,500$22,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,740.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 17c | 41,683$7,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,292.89 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 66c | 38,151$25,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,031.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 58c | 36,808$21,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,572.12 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 41c | 35,052$14,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,472.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 32,784$21,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,619.49 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 32,412$22,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,311.93 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 62c | 32,065$19,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,252.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…eb29backed Yes | 26c | 31,306$7,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,989.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 53c | 29,752$15,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,857.37 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 69c | 28,453$19,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,728.65 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 28,383$11,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,285.76 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 56c | 27,412$15,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,399.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…f979backed Yes | 43c | 26,830$11,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,468.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 31c | 25,780$7,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,917.5 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 34c | 25,415$8,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,705.66 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 9c | 25,241$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 39c | 24,122$9,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,337.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 45c | 23,999$10,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,103.24 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 42c | 22,807$9,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,644.22 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 50c | 22,258$11,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,031.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 79c | 22,150$17,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.59 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 39c | 21,974$8,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,459.21 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 18c | 21,919$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948.18 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 21,826$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.76 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 77c | 20,764$16,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,756.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 64c | 20,492$13,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,381.86 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 32c | 20,159$6,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,476.6 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 48c | 19,599$9,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,422.77 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 52c | 19,588$10,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,148.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…b841backed No | 56c | 19,581$10,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,661.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 23c | 19,343$4,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,418.02 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 56c | 18,538$10,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,405.53 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 65c | 18,258$11,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,458.47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 76c | 17,489$13,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,269.58 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 61c | 17,032$10,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,704.96 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12f…3322backed Yes | 53c | 16,749$8,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,836.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed Yes | 34c | 15,492$5,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,203.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 44c | 14,724$6,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,315.86 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 55c | 14,665$8,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.12 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 45c | 14,165$6,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,439.02 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 53c | 14,001$7,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,535.71 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 49c | 13,557$6,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,575.53 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 49c | 12,966$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,334.87 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 48c | 12,637$6,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,053.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 12,560$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868.06 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 55c | 12,364$6,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,514.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 65c | 12,166$7,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,209.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 44c | 11,749$5,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,152.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…4f48backed No | 59c | 11,648$6,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 48c | 11,454$5,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,506.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 64c | 11,454$7,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…87b1backed No | 78c | 11,452$8,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 11,100$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 50c | 11,000$5,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,509.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 48c | 10,977$5,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,315.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 52c | 10,880$5,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,615.37 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…d913backed Yes | 53c | 10,825$5,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,717.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 20c | 10,708$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 10,670$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.33 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 30c | 10,269$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 9,855$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 46c | 9,754$4,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,504.33 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 9,560$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9524backed No | 55c | 9,478$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,289.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed Yes | 59c | 9,309$5,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,475.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 54c | 9,074$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 27c | 8,898$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.3 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 35c | 8,856$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.21 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…1eeebacked Yes | 80c | 8,775$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cce6backed Yes | 38c | 8,759$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,356 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 8,673$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.91 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 71c | 8,672$6,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.04 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 73c | 8,380$6,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.12 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…90b0backed No | 70c | 8,244$5,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 31c | 8,100$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.69 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 31c | 8,052$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 35c | 8,029$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…e004backed Yes | 46c | 8,005$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 39c | 7,947$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.85 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…54bdbacked No | 63c | 7,932$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 65c | 7,857$5,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.23 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…c3cbbacked No | 64c | 7,758$4,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed Yes | 37c | 7,743$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 74c | 7,573$5,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.73 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 54c | 7,461$4,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.01 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.