TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US-EU trade agreement by July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d17…9558backed No66c9,053$5,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.21040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes53c8,215$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.1641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c6,156$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.7869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes28c4,744$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.74216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes37c4,119$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.3221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c3,932$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes21c3,809$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No43c3,706$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.0121935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No54c3,622$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.853948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No55c3,500$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.621060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c3,348$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1118516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes51c3,293$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.1837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c3,278$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.5237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…2357backed Yes14c3,137$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,085$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.243989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes34c3,060$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.397167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes67c2,681$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.9117850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes30c2,638$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.674843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes54c2,351$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…a2c4backed No54c2,295$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.061266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes20c2,206$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.23923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No62c2,152$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.23262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9ee…8c9cbacked Yes65c2,054$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid+122.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c1,874$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.661,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No43c1,864$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.845451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes39c1,860$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.251931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed No36c1,768$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No76c1,761$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7714624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes27c1,711$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.282123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7efb…547ebacked Yes44c1,709$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes25c1,676$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.981827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed No68c1,551$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No63c1,509$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.542152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes45c1,472$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.2816544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No49c1,463$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.669557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No68c1,389$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.211361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No54c1,377$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.233852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No72c1,370$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.291435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f89…d53dbacked Yes5c1,256$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No53c1,183$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.1619435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No55c1,179$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.5117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c1,167$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.431,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e8…d208backed No64c1,097$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49a1…14a8backed No48c1,090$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8b7…165cbacked Yes52c1,090$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6a…a012backed Yes27c1,050$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.11233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf78…2846backed Yes34c1,023$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Yes50c1,004$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes2c1,003$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.643625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked No45c998.58$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.58922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes62c977.73$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccf…34e6backed No71c938.59$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes28c927.29$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.877244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes34c909.46$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3078433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No37c900$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No49c891.96$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.28111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked Yes71c839.84$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes34c831.06$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.862839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f0c…ca14backed Yes4c817.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+85.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed No71c803.94$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.751546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No31c788.56$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.2314460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecce…fdb4backed No64c779.78$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No62c776.29$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.792250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c761.35$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.5699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08b8…af7abacked No66c753.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No47c699.99$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3713548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes45c691.65$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.162133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes47c691.03$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No63c649.91$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0414230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No72c611.58$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.654748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed No57c600.03$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.273844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes29c559.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.117332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes60c554.5$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2312736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No65c553.03$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed No53c538.21$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.593046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b1…c280backed No61c528.06$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa538…fc53backed Yes29c525.51$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes46c515.66$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.6919348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e46…16a5backed Yes53c508.96$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes38c502.96$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8911428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab0…d582backed No46c500$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.831241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Yes54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes64c494.51$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0415155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No43c484.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.397147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed Yes32c476.12$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.443548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35f8…5dd6backed No73c469$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No67c457.45$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.54163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No60c449.67$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1782075%15 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+78.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a97…0fc7backed No45c447.43$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.562236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes24c434.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.058737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No74c430.78$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.314158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe561…a68dbacked No46c430.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+31.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes35c428.15$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.378250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5770…bafcbacked Yes69c425.64$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.621250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes44c422.93$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.133330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c422.2$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.544111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes69c400.17$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.294940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes42c376.14$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9814125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes44c375.11$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3913943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.