Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c715b695536243a128b653e59f8214262a454811a570c4b019226291c0fa69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,908,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,698,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,908,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 87,499$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 79c | 77,879$61,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,975.56 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 24c | 45,797$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,999.54 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes | 5c | 44,932$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 44,077$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.95 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 8c | 33,861$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.35 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…4a77backed Yes | 2c | 18,863$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 75c | 17,839$13,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,439.55 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 59c | 16,439$9,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,741.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…888cbacked Yes | 42c | 15,685$6,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,572.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 15,436$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…1090backed Yes | 5c | 14,435$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…d5e8backed Yes | 8c | 14,396$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 70c | 12,393$8,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.59 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5292…f5bfbacked Yes | 3c | 11,659$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 5c | 11,200$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.77 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 11,049$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.66 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 3c | 11,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…cbf3backed Yes | 29c | 10,918$3,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,165.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 8c | 10,661$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 7c | 10,571$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.59 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 25c | 10,460$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.11 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 10,286$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.44 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 13c | 10,096$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.22 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 9,919$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.26 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 9,112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 77c | 9,077$6,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…ed3cbacked Yes | 7c | 9,050$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 35c | 8,174$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 2c | 8,072$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 10c | 8,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,800$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 19c | 7,755$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.22 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 78c | 7,493$5,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2ab4backed Yes | 37c | 7,445$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 77c | 7,267$5,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.31 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 7,215$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.07 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 6,988$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x620e…dd97backed Yes | 1c | 6,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 29c | 6,410$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.23 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 6,333$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.56 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed Yes | 12c | 6,273$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 10c | 6,045$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.87 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,011$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 29c | 5,800$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.6 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 6c | 5,799$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked Yes | 23c | 5,778$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 36c | 5,742$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.44 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 74c | 5,172$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…0cfebacked Yes | 2c | 4,999$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 4,965$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.73 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…8e78backed Yes | 6c | 4,813$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…b0d4backed Yes | 10c | 4,764$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,661$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…005fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,639$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 28c | 4,584$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.78 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…87e0backed Yes | 1c | 4,549$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed Yes | 19c | 4,545$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…277cbacked Yes | 24c | 4,473$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…cbb7backed Yes | 3c | 4,426$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Yes | 11c | 4,370$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 15c | 4,327$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes | 25c | 4,215$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb67b…e0e7backed Yes | 7c | 4,112$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,102$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 28c | 4,094$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…d963backed Yes | 10c | 4,011$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked No | 75c | 3,982$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.23 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…447cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,960$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2f…3d10backed Yes | 2c | 3,812$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…2631backed Yes | 31c | 3,739$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 8c | 3,639$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.04 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 4c | 3,598$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 68c | 3,439$2,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.56 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3454backed Yes | 29c | 3,427$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,396$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7e…9c21backed Yes | 3c | 3,280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 47c | 3,278$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.83 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,145$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 15c | 3,132$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…cd20backed Yes | 32c | 3,080$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…4987backed Yes | 6c | 3,053$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0f6dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,025$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,022$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…9536backed Yes | 33c | 3,012$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,919$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 2c | 2,917$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 55c | 2,902$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.19 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…f9f4backed Yes | 10c | 2,887$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4b…b58fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,712$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 2,685$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 78c | 2,669$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.02 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…ae01backed Yes | 16c | 2,650$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ed17backed Yes | 9c | 2,645$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…a162backed Yes | 4c | 2,631$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 2,627$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…1fb8backed Yes | 18c | 2,622$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.