TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,208,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,123,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,208,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes62c83,082$51,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,240.689345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c41,615$5,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,458.1948224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8b…cb8ebacked Yes20c21,921$4,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+229.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes74c20,646$15,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440.5618530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a2…695fbacked Yes16c18,528$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,528.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+192.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6680…b519backed Yes24c18,250$4,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,900.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+319.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…761cbacked Yes11c15,831$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,083.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+805.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d97…2413backed Yes19c15,500$2,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,566.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+164.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes64c15,096$9,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.011216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes74c12,320$9,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.7511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a38…c582backed Yes26c11,134$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,206.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+280.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c10,516$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.364440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb83…306fbacked Yes11c10,013$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,937.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+210.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed Yes27c9,849$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,221.737057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x881d…6e3bbacked No28c9,700$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,677.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c9,654$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,379.991358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90f…8cecbacked No2c8,162$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c7,885$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.972344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes5c7,668$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,268.441040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes27c7,551$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,529.921827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes6c7,387$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,925.872740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a6…ec63backed No30c6,900$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa3…e6c8backed No76c6,550$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba57…cc6fbacked No2c6,390$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb133…de17backed No76c6,100$4,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,636.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes39c5,875$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.61485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+55.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4669…1005backed No2c5,837$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c5,719$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.641691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa818…0de9backed No76c5,600$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…9ae7backed No1c5,515$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c5,259$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,247229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b70…b229backed Yes13c5,085$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+149.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…7df3backed Yes12c4,998$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,396.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+731.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No1c4,890$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.01380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e4…8031backed No3c4,588$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No11c4,543$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.5326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes16c4,456$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.4316612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c8…1b8abacked Yes1c4,443$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,380.81100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+7,042.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc96e…0c36backed Yes2c4,426$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.611100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick2cpaid+6,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No71c4,316$3,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,047.485860.3%35 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes40c4,311$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.7911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x2114…7cd4backed No1c4,038$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked No2c4,005$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c3,675$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.161,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5d…200ebacked Yes70c3,650$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a5…6147backed Yes14c3,615$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+141%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked No9c3,506$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.331225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc89d…713dbacked Yes72c3,500$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…9a8ebacked Yes72c3,400$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ec…41edbacked Yes70c3,250$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd54d…1adcbacked Yes13c3,199$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+645.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No34c2,933$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.9432255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfae8…0a59backed Yes35c2,864$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b1…e485backed Yes72c2,800$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79b…c37cbacked Yes40c2,725$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.531833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…74e0backed Yes4c2,704$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+801.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No1c2,630$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7915014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes4c2,600$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.235044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe209…3ebfbacked Yes19c2,596$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.02475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+693.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd118…e32fbacked No2c2,503$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7150…6a8abacked Yes5c2,449$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.221136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick16cpaid+378.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes11c2,431$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.041729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes13c2,400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8825…a842backed No1c2,386$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c2,336$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.931664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab86…c86dbacked No1c2,280$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa796…03bcbacked No1c2,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes67c2,097$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c2,042$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.086883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d7…cd0abacked No1c2,031$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed No1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb86d…3e71backed Yes6c1,900$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.391030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes19c1,779$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.483633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No8c1,759$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.146740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes75c1,746$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1534726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f48…218cbacked Yes75c1,695$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c1,611$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.4488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc6…7007backed No8c1,519$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes7c1,511$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.172128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbf…24e2backed Yes25c1,507$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+197.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes36c1,505$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.983043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No9c1,476$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.841425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xeebf…ab91backed Yes16c1,470$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.231631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes42c1,444$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.742176.2%16 W · 5 L+7.0wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+79.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x530f…9b4abacked No4c1,441$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0723…2762backed Yes7c1,433$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.86560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+254%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1468…91a5backed Yes12c1,416$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.64540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+105.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed No50c1,403$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes8c1,393$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+134.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No4c1,366$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.825149%25 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes5c1,360$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.66149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No21c1,320$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.842445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4e83…c80fbacked No9c1,307$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f4…6202backed Yes20c1,282$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No1c1,261$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.666836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2747…d2c8backed Yes8c1,203$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+301.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96c…6a98backed Yes76c1,200$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.861450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes48c1,191$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.4911454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.