TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,594,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,594,757 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdada…cc48backed Yes0c173,840$174 inLost-$173.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0a…d861backed Yes0c149,080$149 inLost-$149.0840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4985…1367backed Yes0c135,410$135 inLost-$135.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445d…a6d6backed Yes0c124,620$125 inLost-$124.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…f6b5backed Yes0c115,490$115 inLost-$115.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58f…c88bbacked Yes0c96,780$97 inLost-$96.7860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes0c91,960$92 inLost-$91.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f9…e537backed Yes0c65,675$66 inLost-$65.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ab…d3dcbacked Yes0c65,675$66 inLost-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb355…9986backed Yes0c65,645$66 inLost-$65.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9904…c488backed Yes0c64,675$65 inLost-$64.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafb…6de6backed Yes0c62,748$63 inLost-$62.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c57,996$58 inLost-$58220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa462…c03bbacked Yes0c51,350$51 inLost-$51.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c44,806$45 inLost-$44.81230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d54…db98backed Yes0c44,340$44 inLost-$44.3440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c22,401$22 inLost-$22.4254%1 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-93.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf722…69b4backed Yes0c22,228$22 inLost-$22.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7722…c024backed Yes0c19,290$19 inLost-$19.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes0c19,000$19 inLost-$19156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-90.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x975d…01bebacked Yes0c12,500$12 inLost-$12.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c5,908$16 inLost-$15.591358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost-$126149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes2c1,266$20 inLost-$19.791612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f7…0ff1backed Yes2c798.38$15 inLost-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+636.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.