World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02bee7451a745aa0f47d76ea8b15c2eb44b63ba78d122a6aa4d8f60ad4fda22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,386,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,386,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d55…1f3bbacked Yes | 0c | 67,800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…8504backed Yes | 0c | 56,669$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…e88abacked Yes | 0c | 39,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…4c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfba…4691backed Yes | 0c | 33,780$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fe…5655backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…3d5bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…9231backed Yes | 0c | 27,803$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2e…cdf0backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d4…1816backed Yes | 0c | 20,520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…7f6abacked Yes | 0c | 20,520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5775…0751backed Yes | 0c | 20,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc3…22abbacked Yes | 0c | 19,967$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…9f99backed Yes | 0c | 19,887$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…858dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,733$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…34cebacked Yes | 0c | 19,603$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…dbdfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,556$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 19,520$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…d551backed Yes | 0c | 19,301$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa15…05d8backed Yes | 0c | 19,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…1718backed Yes | 0c | 19,234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…fca2backed Yes | 0c | 19,213$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…6e66backed Yes | 0c | 19,109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…ec0cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ff…8a76backed Yes | 0c | 19,001$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…bfb2backed Yes | 0c | 18,978$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…96a9backed Yes | 0c | 18,941$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…f80fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…37ddbacked Yes | 0c | 18,726$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…68f1backed Yes | 0c | 18,692$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2c…ee2dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,669$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…aa48backed Yes | 0c | 18,669$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aca4backed Yes | 0c | 18,637$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad1…9549backed Yes | 0c | 18,515$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…9785backed Yes | 0c | 18,269$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…4590backed Yes | 0c | 18,251$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…225dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…2e35backed Yes | 0c | 18,115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…11fdbacked Yes | 0c | 18,061$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…e1d7backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…95cfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf598…a9d9backed Yes | 0c | 17,674$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…50c5backed Yes | 0c | 17,513$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce0…602abacked Yes | 0c | 17,510$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…af63backed Yes | 0c | 17,335$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…1600backed Yes | 0c | 17,322$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…9573backed Yes | 0c | 17,306$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69c…b69bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…452cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…7b55backed Yes | 0c | 17,110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…0371backed Yes | 0c | 16,741$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…629fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,013$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…9f18backed Yes | 0c | 15,780$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ec…f47cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…adabbacked Yes | 0c | 10,869$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…8135backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 7,797$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…ae3fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,511$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…e546backed Yes | 0c | 5,382$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8c…cce7backed Yes | 0c | 5,221$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe177…a6adbacked Yes | 0c | 4,514$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 4,052$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…172bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,635$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,463$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…d096backed Yes | 1c | 3,452$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…0cd1backed Yes | 1c | 2,790$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Yes | 6c | 2,088$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.