TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,282,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,282,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7191…9a72backed Yes0c150,400$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea03…d73abacked Yes0c131,217$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771b…b76ebacked Yes0c126,985$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef0…969ebacked Yes0c102,275$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0031…d4aebacked Yes0c100,954$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca2…76a7backed Yes0c79,070$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973b…d4a6backed Yes0c73,300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3590…3ccfbacked Yes0c67,600$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6685…5ef6backed Yes0c66,720$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f81…ad40backed Yes0c63,911$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc63…561abacked Yes0c59,065$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes0c59,065$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…4dd5backed Yes0c58,420$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf553…bb03backed Yes0c56,030$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbff…1681backed Yes0c47,390$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a13…7f70backed Yes0c46,830$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb419…1228backed Yes0c46,200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66cb…c4ecbacked Yes0c42,547$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…317bbacked Yes0c40,820$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c3…245dbacked Yes0c39,239$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe3…dfbebacked Yes0c38,797$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a3…7888backed Yes0c35,895$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…3ca7backed Yes0c35,895$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c34,170$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.174440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfba…4691backed Yes0c33,330$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed5…e88abacked Yes0c33,330$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd70a…baf2backed Yes0c30,217$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…a4adbacked Yes0c29,757$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7694…085fbacked Yes0c29,314$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcf…4272backed Yes0c29,090$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9176…e2b5backed Yes0c28,330$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c8a…d59dbacked Yes0c27,690$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…a53abacked Yes0c24,851$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ab…8312backed Yes0c24,400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb9…4d1ebacked Yes0c23,530$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb54b…5f93backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb370…4489backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fe…1b08backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3d…2345backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71d…1662backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea4…5f23backed Yes0c23,524$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a01…70f9backed Yes0c23,150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0213…7bd0backed Yes0c22,935$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022b…e72fbacked Yes0c22,893$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603b…3288backed Yes0c22,834$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91e…b59dbacked Yes0c22,712$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b6…b99bbacked Yes0c22,569$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb456…484ebacked Yes0c22,490$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae75…7c5cbacked Yes0c22,399$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2471…8215backed Yes0c22,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb9…18d8backed Yes0c22,173$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1855…af43backed Yes0c22,147$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba9…2babbacked Yes0c22,139$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ab…bfa7backed Yes0c22,120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9458…1935backed Yes0c21,915$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebc…2c9cbacked Yes0c21,664$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe480…2971backed Yes0c21,638$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c05…54fabacked Yes0c21,638$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd71…67cebacked Yes0c21,632$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f50…e7fabacked Yes0c21,570$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa929…283bbacked Yes0c21,519$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f18…fe74backed Yes0c21,322$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7d…5e9ebacked Yes0c21,314$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358d…ca91backed Yes0c21,273$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb142…144dbacked Yes0c21,118$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bd…3352backed Yes0c21,087$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aff…a623backed Yes0c21,063$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd954…1092backed Yes0c20,313$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd382…77babacked Yes0c18,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800b…1a1fbacked Yes0c18,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7dd…8533backed Yes0c15,897$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7455…f67ebacked Yes0c15,794$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e37…ac2ebacked Yes0c15,794$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad5…04f1backed Yes0c15,794$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae64…fe29backed Yes0c14,220$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…884cbacked Yes0c12,900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc389…295abacked Yes0c12,887$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6231…3026backed Yes0c12,887$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…9471backed Yes0c12,887$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a5…3531backed Yes0c12,887$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f9…1dbfbacked Yes0c12,887$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e58…d4fcbacked Yes0c12,585$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c12,476$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84b…c2e5backed Yes0c12,440$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2053…a600backed Yes0c12,208$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b27…f126backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a1…6d31backed Yes0c11,573$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb348…6f30backed Yes0c10,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ea…eab6backed Yes0c10,620$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561c…0c7cbacked Yes0c10,121$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39f…0339backed Yes0c10,111$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0237…9292backed Yes0c10,102$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ec…0764backed Yes0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d64…39eabacked Yes0c10,074$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb217…4aa4backed Yes0c10,042$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f9…70b6backed Yes0c10,008$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c6,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c5,866$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2309…9b8ebacked Yes0c5,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.