World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6fa28dce85f3fd0c3a25f6eec7980775a9c1e321e1f988c9fbd91760908be8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,845,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,845,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bda…cfbabacked Yes | 0c | 275,530$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…606cbacked Yes | 0c | 226,220$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c07ebacked Yes | 0c | 211,410$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…8d81backed Yes | 0c | 170,250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…24fcbacked Yes | 0c | 157,750$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3d…23b0backed Yes | 0c | 129,100$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…1367backed Yes | 0c | 122,030$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…3406backed Yes | 0c | 116,200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…b4d1backed Yes | 0c | 116,180$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…45aebacked Yes | 0c | 98,413$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…8a1fbacked Yes | 0c | 97,390$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…31c2backed Yes | 0c | 96,233$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…8fd4backed Yes | 0c | 96,224$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…fa8abacked Yes | 0c | 96,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…f94cbacked Yes | 0c | 95,200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…d95cbacked Yes | 0c | 65,755$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…dff1backed Yes | 0c | 65,755$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…cc9ebacked Yes | 0c | 65,755$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…724bbacked Yes | 0c | 63,965$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…3a06backed Yes | 0c | 62,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…70f5backed Yes | 0c | 60,910$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…62cfbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…4beebacked Yes | 0c | 52,820$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 47,633$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdada…cc48backed Yes | 0c | 47,070$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…6409backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7995…60febacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 23,813$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.