TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc4e…8fd4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
23
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.6
Pacers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$18.37
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+117.4%+$16.2
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Wizards vs. Grizzliesbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+488.2%+$70.35
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.22
Wizards vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+40.8%+$4.35
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$6.7
Pistons vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.56
All 13 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$17.47
Reds vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$10.48
Padres vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Reds vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$28
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Detroit Titansbacked Detroit Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.25
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebelsbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+122.2%+$28.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+112.8%+$13.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cardinals vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$96.22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.