TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,304,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,304,496 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c272,535$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5455316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc2…6585backed Yes0c97,990$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e5…d04dbacked Yes0c90,917$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.922138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd62…2c9dbacked Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e4…524cbacked Yes0c77,912$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68eb…9b8bbacked Yes0c75,256$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c79…a453backed Yes0c75,256$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.26742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c2…e2c5backed Yes0c75,256$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…98c6backed Yes0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd642…5877backed Yes0c72,581$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f85…ea73backed Yes0c71,013$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.011442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc4e…8fd4backed Yes0c70,600$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8768…9461backed Yes0c70,346$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe079…9531backed Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…6685backed Yes0c69,979$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa937…3969backed Yes0c69,750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…e410backed Yes0c69,750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bb…26ccbacked Yes0c69,750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1854…f9e2backed Yes0c69,750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75a…096abacked Yes0c69,720$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe873…660abacked Yes0c69,720$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…aaccbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07e…4531backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aab…1d74backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef8…156abacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ab…f1edbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6338…c6e4backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1814…ace5backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9de…87eebacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52c7…7836backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4802…6cadbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b1…38ebbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2075…33c1backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8036…7720backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472f…8823backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e0…24abbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e03…d580backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3f…01a5backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb976…296abacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd873…0628backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd43…a06ebacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d8…060bbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd30…38d1backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d8…43dfbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d97…5550backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31aa…eb97backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d9…1e53backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465e…a069backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa85…eccdbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…d9a1backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f65…481cbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbac…1b43backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3255…1b83backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…8ae8backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…6da7backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca71…7647backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e0…8596backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ac…8eaabacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4156…cd65backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb7…0160backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bbf…a409backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8577…9bd6backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9081…7c5cbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba2…78e5backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2952…ef41backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c2…2d5ebacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41e…5ecbbacked Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…b0a4backed Yes0c69,225$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50d…38a4backed Yes0c69,210$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d4f…c578backed Yes0c68,927$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.932638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02b…be0bbacked Yes0c68,924$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.922532%8 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc6b…dc9bbacked Yes0c68,600$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a6…3079backed Yes0c67,363$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.362755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6af9…f1bfbacked Yes0c66,689$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.691741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1382…5a67backed Yes0c66,094$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37b…0360backed Yes0c66,088$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.092050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2d…5205backed Yes0c66,088$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7531…3f6fbacked Yes0c64,077$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.083237.5%12 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf739…8167backed Yes0c63,886$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes0c56,257$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.51240%0 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd030…ca51backed Yes0c53,050$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7b…12e1backed Yes0c47,111$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8116…3134backed Yes0c44,397$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3451…0abcbacked Yes0c40,236$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.241225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…0defbacked Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x190a…5921backed Yes0c34,350$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf050…b0b7backed Yes0c32,060$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea03…d73abacked Yes0c31,078$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa743…c4f7backed Yes0c30,689$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.69944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c3…245dbacked Yes0c29,391$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-85.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf04…dce0backed Yes0c27,668$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb4d…c75abacked Yes0c27,264$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.263240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3590…3ccfbacked Yes0c24,660$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd039…3f78backed Yes0c23,140$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbff…1681backed Yes0c23,039$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb9…4d1ebacked Yes0c23,039$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe3…1669backed Yes0c23,007$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.