TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,107,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,107,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94e5…3d5bbacked Yes0c61,752$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c49,439$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4455316.5%91 W · 462 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8cc…0d03backed Yes0c35,593$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…bc0bbacked Yes0c34,127$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461d…20b8backed Yes0c32,091$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8d…2e31backed Yes0c28,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d3…ac96backed Yes0c27,820$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966c…4d92backed Yes0c27,007$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d32backed Yes0c26,326$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cc…50d2backed Yes0c26,306$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3239…cb61backed Yes0c25,650$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d55…1f3bbacked Yes0c25,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf1…f3dcbacked Yes0c24,382$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…592ebacked Yes0c23,882$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e2…47eebacked Yes0c23,732$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d7…765bbacked Yes0c23,602$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…4d32backed Yes0c23,571$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b9…6011backed Yes0c23,534$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a2…829cbacked Yes0c23,502$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2277…84c8backed Yes0c23,502$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…2178backed Yes0c23,499$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a83…a529backed Yes0c23,352$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb5…aa82backed Yes0c23,351$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1a…44abbacked Yes0c23,351$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917d…98b9backed Yes0c23,278$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc511…89f7backed Yes0c23,232$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4195…2fc7backed Yes0c23,079$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c92…2c5abacked Yes0c22,976$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9a…eac3backed Yes0c22,862$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac25…8731backed Yes0c22,699$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fc…7f73backed Yes0c22,519$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ff…65a4backed Yes0c22,416$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf8…518fbacked Yes0c22,390$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd511…55f6backed Yes0c22,232$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x346c…9042backed Yes0c21,754$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78a…2d03backed Yes0c21,653$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ac…1877backed Yes0c21,510$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c19,964$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2c…ee2dbacked Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa50d…38a4backed Yes0c15,029$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7325…d8cabacked Yes0c14,178$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445d…a6d6backed Yes0c13,960$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc3…968cbacked Yes0c13,578$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed4…4dfebacked Yes0c13,275$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2e…cdf0backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531c…70f5backed Yes0c12,950$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.953636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…8980backed Yes0c12,950$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ea…be1fbacked Yes0c12,900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019f…1f4dbacked Yes0c12,867$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…f6b5backed Yes0c12,850$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4985…1367backed Yes0c12,800$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bda…cfbabacked Yes0c12,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cc2…d26dbacked Yes0c12,350$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ec…a1e6backed Yes0c12,319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2116…725bbacked Yes0c12,319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e6e…3139backed Yes0c12,319$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7874…15ebbacked Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf665…e4cbbacked Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…5019backed Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c6f…fbf3backed Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f1…3f26backed Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d2…0f5abacked Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12e…b94ebacked Yes0c12,191$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef19…d4bebacked Yes0c12,176$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389b…e1d7backed Yes0c12,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdada…cc48backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4620…99b7backed Yes0c11,856$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe7b…eb71backed Yes0c11,805$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288d…d9bebacked Yes0c11,786$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d2…9bf5backed Yes0c11,785$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa4…844bbacked Yes0c11,737$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…5e9bbacked Yes0c11,731$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e13…7343backed Yes0c11,640$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd3…fc9dbacked Yes0c11,442$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb7…7e28backed Yes0c11,441$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd6…82d8backed Yes0c11,399$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986a…3514backed Yes0c11,372$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ef…55aabacked Yes0c11,339$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bf…d1dbbacked Yes0c11,328$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6077…4084backed Yes0c11,290$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…9290backed Yes0c11,275$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d5d…5213backed Yes0c11,265$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7909…214dbacked Yes0c11,214$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…461abacked Yes0c11,214$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64d…a62dbacked Yes0c11,174$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc744…1f32backed Yes0c11,033$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4781…9041backed Yes0c11,012$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04db…24fcbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e8…5b75backed Yes0c10,933$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c59…9a9dbacked Yes0c10,916$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3d…d194backed Yes0c10,870$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f3…4bf7backed Yes0c10,717$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc411…447abacked Yes0c10,625$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…ffd2backed Yes0c10,617$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef14…30ebbacked Yes0c10,495$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…9805backed Yes0c10,419$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4d9fbacked Yes0c10,379$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e13…8bfebacked Yes0c10,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f3…4441backed Yes0c10,240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…c853backed Yes0c10,239$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.