NBA · resolved market
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434f5226d48f9b140a0cb8f12d066bc0bf2aabe8ac672bf2c91ec5906e86480e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,319,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,319,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 65,463$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 64,664$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 0c | 49,168$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 44,767$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…594dbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…d731backed Yes | 1c | 38,190$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…df51backed Yes | 0c | 35,761$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 29,430$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…0abcbacked Yes | 0c | 24,173$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…d04dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,245$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…0defbacked Yes | 0c | 23,221$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…f6b5backed Yes | 0c | 23,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…be1fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…a250backed Yes | 0c | 23,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ad…efccbacked Yes | 0c | 23,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…88a5backed Yes | 0c | 23,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…f3dcbacked Yes | 0c | 23,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…6585backed Yes | 0c | 22,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,990$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc2…d26dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…7736backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…89f7backed Yes | 0c | 19,804$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…bc0bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,574$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…4dfebacked Yes | 0c | 18,896$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…7f73backed Yes | 0c | 18,691$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…20b8backed Yes | 0c | 18,414$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…d227backed Yes | 0c | 18,350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fac…0c54backed Yes | 1c | 16,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…74f5backed Yes | 0c | 11,196$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c853backed Yes | 0c | 11,162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…6484backed Yes | 0c | 11,162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5d…0854backed Yes | 0c | 11,096$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…3d5fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,985$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…3958backed Yes | 0c | 10,861$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…d3cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,724$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…0d03backed Yes | 0c | 10,594$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…cafdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,547$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,154$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,006$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 9,654$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…f984backed Yes | 0c | 9,104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…589cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…4021backed Yes | 0c | 9,104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…7632backed Yes | 0c | 9,104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…4330backed Yes | 0c | 9,104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…4bb2backed Yes | 0c | 9,048$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…1fefbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 1c | 7,485$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,143$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,216$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,766$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…6191backed Yes | 0c | 5,377$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 2c | 5,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ef…5831backed Yes | 0c | 5,325$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…5758backed Yes | 0c | 4,552$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…41f5backed Yes | 1c | 4,369$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,485$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,094$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 185 | 18.4%34 W · 151 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,034$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690e…c29fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,658$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 1c | 2,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…0704backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 55.6%104 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…df5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,654$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…f5c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 355 | 31.8%113 W · 242 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,496$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Yes | 1c | 1,212$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…e528backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 979.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…26fabacked Yes | 1c | 857.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.