AI · resolved market
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5958a736bc5717e723b7de3d1318ea91e3bcadda49ddb8642fed121185520ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 84,118$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.35 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 13,842$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…8fd4backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd1…1a53backed Yes | 0c | 10,833$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed Yes | 3c | 7,521$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 3c | 7,200$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,031$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,837$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,218$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 18c | 5,184$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 18c | 3,693$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 3,545$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 2c | 3,377$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,354$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.1 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,137$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.7 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,438$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 63c | 2,400$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.81 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,122$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…31f5backed Yes | 49c | 2,120$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 2c | 2,058$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,016$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,850$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,765$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.74 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…ba24backed Yes | 1c | 1,497$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…b2d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,465$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 14c | 1,347$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…9aabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd623…057abacked Yes | 21c | 1,038$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…5b61backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…4788backed Yes | 13c | 1,031$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…b2a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…be69backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aec…889ebacked Yes | 2c | 958.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed Yes | 18c | 815.6$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 4c | 771.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 21c | 753.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed Yes | 7c | 670$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…87a8backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 17c | 574.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 11c | 555.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 10c | 537.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 6c | 458.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 456$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 437.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…d707backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…1673backed Yes | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…d81abacked Yes | 20c | 342$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…925cbacked Yes | 30c | 333.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 332$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…df80backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c48ebacked Yes | 19c | 231$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…f316backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed Yes | 17c | 173.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked No | 79c | 170$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 18c | 142.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…d3ecbacked Yes | 16c | 122.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…c343backed No | 80c | 119.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 62c | 101.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…92ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…12f1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 19c | 95.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…ff7dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.