AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4d93a9b8cbb99ee56a09651216e669f28382e0e66fead61a0bf59f341e5d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 89,708$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 33,854$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.81 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 29,999$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…20b6backed Yes | 0c | 28,535$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 24,674$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 2c | 10,756$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 6,105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 3c | 3,584$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…0aa5backed Yes | 2c | 2,706$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…2510backed Yes | 2c | 2,697$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,679$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,479$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 1c | 2,350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,998$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…8fc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 2c | 890$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.