AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f30b04efa5667cc68c1d2b4cd2dbbc334b974c93476e10ebe823fc32820267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 62,777$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 2c | 17,255$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 17,094$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.96 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 5c | 11,656$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.77 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 4c | 10,247$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c44…0257backed Yes | 6c | 8,736$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,830$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 6,100$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…4e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,546$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…8800backed Yes | 1c | 4,525$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 1c | 3,573$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 3,313$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,943$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,657$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…53d5backed Yes | 2c | 2,184$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 6c | 2,027$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,001$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,887$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,768$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…0f13backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 4c | 1,103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 9c | 1,088$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 5c | 1,068$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…0403backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…d26cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 5c | 980.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed Yes | 5c | 974.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 789.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 3c | 631.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 10c | 598.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…e402backed Yes | 7c | 584.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…68acbacked Yes | 3c | 579.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444b…8f3dbacked Yes | 10c | 576.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 540.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 525.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…ec4dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 7c | 444.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 37cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…57e8backed Yes | 9c | 443.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 8c | 405.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…d707backed Yes | 5c | 390.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…ef11backed Yes | 3c | 371.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23dd…f944backed Yes | 7c | 270.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d61…7a05backed Yes | 4c | 251.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…1feabacked Yes | 5c | 244.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…a0aabacked Yes | 4c | 242.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 5c | 208.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 10c | 196.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3331…e256backed Yes | 9c | 158.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…c302backed Yes | 10c | 131.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 8c | 130.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…5a38backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.