TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$841,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$681,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $841,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94a4…6356backed Yes56c86,775$48,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,499.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c41,267$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.85229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes19c33,992$6,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.0348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c24,333$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.734440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes7c21,806$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.6410331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes4c10,455$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.987420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes6c7,843$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.271729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No48c7,260$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,775.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes1c6,781$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,999$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes20c5,788$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.433633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaef…a883backed Yes9c5,645$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,581$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.741,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes5c4,716$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.841216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2012…92b9backed Yes4c4,687$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c4,486$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0716612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…51b4backed No45c4,414$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No1c4,165$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,123.212634.6%9 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick8cpaid+854.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes3c3,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.513420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,978$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.136883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcc…1ab0backed Yes4c2,938$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.66616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes8c2,930$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.33922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-65.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf218…a7a4backed Yes0c2,919$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,901$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9814…560fbacked Yes1c2,895$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2706…26d9backed Yes0c2,889$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2174…6157backed Yes1c2,840$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1454…efd5backed Yes1c2,808$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ba…65b6backed Yes0c2,764$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acf…c201backed Yes0c2,742$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16b…e3e4backed Yes1c2,729$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e48…c3d2backed Yes0c2,727$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c2,718$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.794766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b8a…93a1backed Yes1c2,687$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee36…6967backed Yes1c2,675$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3435…2b6cbacked Yes1c2,672$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f09…9a11backed Yes0c2,671$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…7a5fbacked Yes0c2,667$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8e…ed96backed Yes1c2,623$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes17c2,478$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.4119027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes3c2,439$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.32326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe209…3ebfbacked Yes4c2,404$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+693.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbdc0…6d37backed Yes5c2,397$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c2,389$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.741,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098a…e7adbacked Yes7c2,158$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes5c2,130$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+364.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c2,118$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0337117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6651…e3ebbacked No48c1,877$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes9c1,823$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.411540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+582.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c1,800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c1,783$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.3588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8f…5fe6backed Yes11c1,678$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c1,610$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.681358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed No56c1,582$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79b…c37cbacked Yes8c1,540$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No14c1,428$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.087335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x7768…21a7backed Yes40c1,372$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7839…f16bbacked Yes39c1,294$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1725…c0eebacked Yes36c1,294$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24d…c232backed Yes6c1,271$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab32…98bcbacked Yes47c1,225$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.631844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db2…4e2fbacked No56c1,155$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae8…0a59backed Yes5c1,144$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c1,139$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.066219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7522…7d40backed Yes37c999.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c998.05$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.732255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No70c973.65$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.064555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3c…1d60backed Yes5c962.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes11c949.97$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed Yes16c929.77$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes4c916.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.871513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed No66c912.69$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.695100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x74da…ec2fbacked Yes6c899$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Yes22c898.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c77…276abacked Yes29c897.01$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No57c894.37$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.355044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45a9…309dbacked Yes9c842.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f4…6202backed Yes10c815.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc0…d015backed Yes10c803.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e7…0788backed Yes6c759.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed No53c758.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.541136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022a…2da6backed No69c723.9$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc28…53e5backed Yes6c708.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb86d…3e71backed Yes3c685.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.981030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes8c662.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.551717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+149.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes4c646.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes7c592$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4419623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be8…9d93backed No51c591.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.181643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+79%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x753a…0e2cbacked Yes40c572.41$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.84540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…d71cbacked Yes18c559.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes32c550.67$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4b…d9b4backed No52c546.87$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes9c538.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.68348.8%3 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd042…a60abacked Yes3c535.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked No48c525.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.131216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2602846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…2802backed Yes11c500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…b63bbacked Yes5c498.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b20…c6e9backed Yes4c486.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d7…e193backed Yes3c480.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+452.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.