World Politics · resolved market
Will there be no coalition by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef52494c79455d74e63442b67691c8a081517c8742c4be81ab9c37f81fccf8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $669,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $443,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 34,420$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.57 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 2c | 25,188$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +378.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes | 31c | 20,049$6,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,221.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 17,034$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.63 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 5c | 14,648$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.76 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,143$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 75c | 12,876$9,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.54 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 3c | 12,113$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…b9bfbacked Yes | 7c | 11,210$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251c…0292backed Yes | 4c | 9,614$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes | 0c | 8,491$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…efffbacked Yes | 3c | 8,236$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 7,465$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,186$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 3c | 4,863$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 10c | 4,787$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…2788backed Yes | 1c | 4,116$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 3c | 4,034$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,128.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,757$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 3,671$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…984bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,589$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…ec2fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,334$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…a7c7backed Yes | 6c | 3,310$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 3,235$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…cbf6backed Yes | 16c | 3,086$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 35c | 2,819$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 2,754$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…d590backed Yes | 1c | 2,747$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,726$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…7760backed Yes | 1c | 2,670$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,253$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…124ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,206$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 2,193$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…1ab0backed Yes | 5c | 2,182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 13c | 2,147$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…cc4dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,038$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…e30fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,983$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…03f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,971$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…9f4cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,884$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…0673backed Yes | 12c | 1,873$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…2148backed Yes | 10c | 1,806$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,804$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…3b78backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 5c | 1,761$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed Yes | 4c | 1,590$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…0fe6backed Yes | 14c | 1,581$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +234.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,527$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…a0edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,522$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…b096backed Yes | 14c | 1,460$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…ce48backed Yes | 8c | 1,417$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,415$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 65c | 1,400$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,396$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1b…053bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,389$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa079…92c4backed Yes | 12c | 1,348$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…c130backed Yes | 17c | 1,330$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,327$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…46f2backed Yes | 11c | 1,306$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…5a76backed Yes | 9c | 1,268$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…6180backed Yes | 8c | 1,267$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 16c | 1,237$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +364.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…cac5backed Yes | 9c | 1,207$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…96b3backed Yes | 9c | 1,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…bfcabacked Yes | 8c | 1,165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…e105backed Yes | 14c | 1,125$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…29ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,075$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…f98ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,058$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…b05fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,047$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb554…1eb2backed Yes | 13c | 1,037$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…3269backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,030$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…c19abacked Yes | 12c | 972.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…21a7backed Yes | 13c | 933.13$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…6029backed Yes | 5c | 925.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 12c | 923.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 13c | 919.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…a60abacked Yes | 3c | 904.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…c972backed Yes | 11c | 894.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…b68bbacked Yes | 13c | 850.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c19…d32abacked Yes | 8c | 841.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…8c78backed Yes | 11c | 832.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…e9c7backed Yes | 8c | 830$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…d53fbacked Yes | 14c | 824.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…2f43backed Yes | 8c | 798.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…2683backed Yes | 4c | 777.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed Yes | 4c | 759.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…75b6backed Yes | 13c | 757.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 7c | 750$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 14c | 730.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f49…b123backed Yes | 12c | 729.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 719.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 714.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 13c | 700$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +855%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 4c | 699.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.