TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,150,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,150,612 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e16…39cdbacked Yes0c262,438$262 inLost-$262.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c21…9302backed Yes0c90,793$91 inLost-$90.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes0c90,657$91 inLost-$90.66220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…fbd5backed Yes0c89,497$89 inLost-$89.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…4011backed Yes0c88,000$88 inLost-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b32…00a5backed Yes0c58,446$58 inLost-$58.4560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301e…8fddbacked Yes0c58,445$58 inLost-$58.4540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…bbf7backed Yes0c58,442$58 inLost-$58.4450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d7…e241backed Yes0c58,441$58 inLost-$58.4450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c45,712$46 inLost-$45.71230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c22,862$23 inLost-$22.86254%1 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-93.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost-$214440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975d…01bebacked Yes0c17,500$17 inLost-$17.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2309…9b8ebacked Yes0c7,000$28 inLost-$2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c6,560$61 inLost-$61.091358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes4c5,555$204 inLost-$203.921612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c4,500$63 inLost-$63.1548224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33fc…acecbacked Yes4c3,111$118 inLost-$118.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,183$34 inLost-$33.821,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc561…b68bbacked Yes5c2,002$105 inLost-$105633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb2…332dbacked Yes2c1,112$22 inLost-$21.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c1,029$28 inLost-$27.781494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6044…d096backed Yes4c605.68$25 inLost-$251315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes4c300$11 inLost-$10.56149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x173d…dc87backed Yes4c270$10 inLost-$10.12933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.