World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb89a21f2452a9fa13b9fcaf8361e805deaac21c5f6788ed89e32e635fdd1b90b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,311,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,311,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x019f…1f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 186,770$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…7ee1backed Yes | 0c | 162,800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…db98backed Yes | 0c | 157,100$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…4df5backed Yes | 0c | 128,560$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…4beebacked Yes | 0c | 104,410$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…d861backed Yes | 0c | 102,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…c334backed Yes | 0c | 91,910$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c07ebacked Yes | 0c | 74,640$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 71,580$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…8d81backed Yes | 0c | 68,780$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…606cbacked Yes | 0c | 66,440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…8980backed Yes | 0c | 60,680$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 48,793$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3d…23b0backed Yes | 0c | 42,440$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3239…cb61backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…d1a2backed Yes | 0c | 29,571$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…0645backed Yes | 0c | 28,584$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…16d5backed Yes | 0c | 28,111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…a296backed Yes | 0c | 27,344$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd82…d8a6backed Yes | 0c | 26,567$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 24,403$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc2…d26dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,840$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…00bebacked Yes | 0c | 20,523$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a5…8069backed Yes | 0c | 20,465$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd8…60a1backed Yes | 0c | 20,465$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…8c92backed Yes | 0c | 20,465$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…0468backed Yes | 0c | 19,812$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eed…9342backed Yes | 0c | 19,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4b…52b3backed Yes | 0c | 19,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…69b5backed Yes | 0c | 19,452$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…e466backed Yes | 0c | 19,393$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…8c75backed Yes | 0c | 19,375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…d493backed Yes | 0c | 19,312$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…f420backed Yes | 0c | 19,289$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…8f06backed Yes | 0c | 19,258$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…8cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,223$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae5…8e2fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,153$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…c6b3backed Yes | 0c | 19,151$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…416cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,149$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…0086backed Yes | 0c | 19,124$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…a55ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,081$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c98…72b1backed Yes | 0c | 19,070$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…2ddcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,044$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9927backed Yes | 0c | 18,955$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…5d67backed Yes | 0c | 18,816$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…76bfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,633$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…8740backed Yes | 0c | 18,594$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…2f9cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,412$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4770…2536backed Yes | 0c | 18,162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…1b20backed Yes | 0c | 18,019$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…3cb0backed Yes | 0c | 18,012$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…1e15backed Yes | 0c | 17,997$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…56d6backed Yes | 0c | 17,981$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…075abacked Yes | 0c | 17,946$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…a571backed Yes | 0c | 17,822$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387d…0211backed Yes | 0c | 17,551$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…1dccbacked Yes | 0c | 17,366$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…371abacked Yes | 0c | 17,328$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…7f5fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,073$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…86e9backed Yes | 0c | 17,066$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…54cabacked Yes | 0c | 17,042$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…0488backed Yes | 0c | 17,041$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef53…dea3backed Yes | 0c | 11,502$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…050cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,502$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…5e21backed Yes | 0c | 11,285$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…04dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,629$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 9,742$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…c051backed Yes | 0c | 5,354$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…0f6fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,019$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b0…e139backed Yes | 0c | 3,019$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…8f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…3b6cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,741$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…fb92backed Yes | 0c | 2,642$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a58…14d5backed Yes | 0c | 2,642$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.