World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9512261b151118f08f755e5061a65eeabd545fdef180468c1f7ad63e10a7e0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e8…bbf7backed Yes | 0c | 43,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 30,520$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 0cpaid | +2,830.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,863$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.28 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Yes | 0c | 21,898$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…00a5backed Yes | 0c | 21,896$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 11,761$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 9,269$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 3c | 7,361$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,213$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,605$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,128.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 4,812$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…efffbacked Yes | 3c | 4,100$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…d2c8backed Yes | 2c | 4,066$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +301.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6042…549bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…0fe1backed Yes | 0c | 2,792$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…fef4backed Yes | 1c | 2,788$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…d883backed Yes | 1c | 2,774$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…d2b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,673$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b6…ba79backed Yes | 0c | 2,631$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…7d17backed Yes | 4c | 2,575$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +464%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…b371backed Yes | 3c | 2,537$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…b105backed Yes | 1c | 2,513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 2c | 2,432$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 1c | 2,379$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…95f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed Yes | 5c | 1,934$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,583$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fbccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,519$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…1220backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…0a59backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…ef73backed Yes | 2c | 968.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…05ecbacked Yes | 3c | 912.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 905.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…e801backed Yes | 3c | 858.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…d015backed Yes | 4c | 810.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 792.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 3c | 678.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…167dbacked Yes | 4c | 611.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…6202backed Yes | 4c | 559.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…9bb2backed Yes | 5c | 530.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 486.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…53c4backed Yes | 3c | 484.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503b…8d23backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3c…1d60backed Yes | 7c | 278.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.