TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be another combination?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,091,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,091,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes5c51,152$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.0348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c41,152$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.664440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c21,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes2c19,229$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.0618530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c18,260$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.436883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c17,285$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0519027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c17,260$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.471,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde37…b9bfbacked Yes4c13,824$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c13,800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8300%0 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c13,663$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes4c13,000$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+441.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes3c13,000$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.543420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaef…a883backed Yes3c12,716$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a9…309dbacked Yes3c12,669$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c12,326$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.0116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25e…1d21backed Yes2c10,908$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b5…244ebacked Yes1c10,685$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa796…03bcbacked Yes0c10,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb77…b403backed Yes1c10,590$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes10c9,833$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc631…5db0backed Yes3c8,413$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa900…3805backed Yes2c7,914$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817a…7101backed Yes10c7,746$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4f4dbacked Yes6c7,654$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03db…d065backed Yes1c7,610$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4cd…7cdfbacked Yes1c7,610$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be8…9d93backed Yes6c7,154$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.391643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+79%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x206c…bda4backed Yes1c7,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e6…b943backed Yes1c7,100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcfd…7dafbacked Yes1c7,080$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357f…efffbacked Yes4c6,459$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.811010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbf…24e2backed Yes3c6,352$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+197.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes2c6,327$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.331216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f9…ae8abacked Yes10c5,852$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9405…eea5backed Yes5c5,590$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…6e52backed Yes3c5,515$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes0c5,408$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes0c5,170$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.01283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c5,066$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb4…7889backed Yes4c5,055$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…3640backed Yes5c4,961$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd042…a60abacked Yes2c4,877$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes2c4,721$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,519$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.94766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885b…fbc0backed Yes5c4,509$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes6c4,153$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes3c3,896$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9730233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27b5…c668backed Yes3c3,778$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,775$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed Yes3c3,723$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd9…3460backed Yes7c3,403$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes1c3,232$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9943…a0f2backed Yes1c3,127$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b10…c92fbacked Yes9c3,067$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes3c3,065$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes3c3,020$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.29633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+134.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6b…b86dbacked Yes2c3,010$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes4c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10512129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x638b…4229backed Yes4c2,981$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4623…cc4dbacked Yes7c2,947$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe910…a9b8backed Yes3c2,939$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes1c2,883$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.85326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77ae…1c41backed Yes3c2,871$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ad…6036backed Yes0c2,843$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975d…01bebacked Yes2c2,800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bf…9743backed Yes0c2,721$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes4c2,708$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5811428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee8…69a6backed Yes8c2,620$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8295…fb0dbacked Yes2c2,585$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc229…3c0ebacked Yes4c2,527$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes7c2,498$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.072128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd505…d392backed Yes4c2,486$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid+203.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked Yes4c2,375$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97d…622bbacked Yes4c2,276$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c2,257$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.221,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c2,253$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.956219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes4c2,079$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c2,070$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5511222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036e…1ecbbacked Yes1c2,005$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…9f2fbacked Yes4c2,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes1c1,930$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ff…41ddbacked Yes2c1,926$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…721cbacked Yes3c1,904$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a5…6147backed Yes2c1,880$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+141%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes3c1,817$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.721612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeae…805cbacked Yes6c1,803$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe952…3f28backed Yes3c1,777$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.711323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4dc…8c5bbacked Yes2c1,690$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4599…755bbacked Yes4c1,684$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick16cpaid+385.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d79…3c9fbacked Yes8c1,671$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebf…ab91backed Yes4c1,638$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…6cf1backed Yes10c1,620$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-80.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c77…276abacked Yes6c1,609$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.86333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…15cfbacked Yes5c1,595$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…2d5fbacked Yes10c1,546$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6476…63f2backed Yes8c1,533$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd026…256cbacked Yes2c1,529$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096b…f809backed Yes7c1,493$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0066…1e90backed Yes3c1,400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.