World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be another combination?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8aa2c026c5679e848832520aac2ed4592679b39a37678c29c23425555747834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,091,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $653,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,091,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 51,152$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.03 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 41,152$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.66 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 21,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 0cpaid | +2,830.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 2c | 19,229$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.06 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 18,260$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.43 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 17,285$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 17,260$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.47 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…b9bfbacked Yes | 4c | 13,824$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 13,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 13,663$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…2bf1backed Yes | 4c | 13,000$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 3c | 13,000$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.54 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 3c | 12,716$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…309dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,669$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,326$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.01 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25e…1d21backed Yes | 2c | 10,908$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…244ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,685$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…03bcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…b403backed Yes | 1c | 10,590$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…6cd3backed Yes | 10c | 9,833$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…5db0backed Yes | 3c | 8,413$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…3805backed Yes | 2c | 7,914$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…7101backed Yes | 10c | 7,746$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4f4dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,654$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…d065backed Yes | 1c | 7,610$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cd…7cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,610$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…9d93backed Yes | 6c | 7,154$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…bda4backed Yes | 1c | 7,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…b943backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…7dafbacked Yes | 1c | 7,080$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…efffbacked Yes | 4c | 6,459$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…24e2backed Yes | 3c | 6,352$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 2c | 6,327$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…ae8abacked Yes | 10c | 5,852$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…eea5backed Yes | 5c | 5,590$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…6e52backed Yes | 3c | 5,515$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 0c | 5,408$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 5,170$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,066$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…7889backed Yes | 4c | 5,055$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…3640backed Yes | 5c | 4,961$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…a60abacked Yes | 2c | 4,877$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 2c | 4,721$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 4,519$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…fbc0backed Yes | 5c | 4,509$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed Yes | 6c | 4,153$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,896$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…c668backed Yes | 3c | 3,778$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,775$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed Yes | 3c | 3,723$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd9…3460backed Yes | 7c | 3,403$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,232$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…a0f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,127$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b10…c92fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,067$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 3c | 3,065$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,020$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…b86dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,010$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638b…4229backed Yes | 4c | 2,981$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…cc4dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,947$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…a9b8backed Yes | 3c | 2,939$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,883$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ae…1c41backed Yes | 3c | 2,871$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…6036backed Yes | 0c | 2,843$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…9743backed Yes | 0c | 2,721$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,708$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…69a6backed Yes | 8c | 2,620$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…fb0dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,585$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…3c0ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,527$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,498$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…d392backed Yes | 4c | 2,486$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +203.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,375$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…622bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,276$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,257$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,253$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes | 4c | 2,079$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 2,070$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…1ecbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,005$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…9f2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…41ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,926$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…721cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,904$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a5…6147backed Yes | 2c | 1,880$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +141%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,817$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…805cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,803$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed Yes | 3c | 1,777$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…8c5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…755bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,684$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 16cpaid | +385.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…3c9fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,671$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…ab91backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…6cf1backed Yes | 10c | 1,620$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…276abacked Yes | 6c | 1,609$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…15cfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,595$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…2d5fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,546$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 1,533$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…256cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,529$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096b…f809backed Yes | 7c | 1,493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…1e90backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.