TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$993,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$851,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $993,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 789 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes43c42,633$18,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,538.2148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes35c26,562$9,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,429.19345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c24,750$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.03229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick0cpaid+2,830.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c22,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5600backed Yes26c19,000$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes56c18,150$10,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,244.7511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5c4…447bbacked Yes22c13,458$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8a…f01dbacked Yes22c13,063$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee75…340bbacked Yes19c12,941$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2629…4aaabacked Yes22c12,850$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,775.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf5…c411backed Yes39c12,717$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c9…3b6cbacked Yes21c12,400$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…e2eebacked Yes21c12,380$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf4…73afbacked Yes22c12,350$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes28c12,189$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.333633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bad…2b6fbacked Yes21c12,150$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1473…9917backed Yes22c11,280$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d2…76e3backed Yes39c10,898$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaef…a883backed Yes44c9,297$4,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,128.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes11c8,717$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.6118530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d67…1b0dbacked No61c8,696$5,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a7…f965backed No61c7,672$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ff…eb8dbacked No61c7,247$4,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes31c6,887$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.7916612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6256…797dbacked No74c6,700$4,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a3…6243backed No74c6,200$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19c…f16bbacked No41c6,179$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,627.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8810…5c11backed No74c6,100$4,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes21c5,687$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.35326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,607$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.271664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1738…eba0backed No79c5,290$4,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeadf…7157backed Yes1c5,165$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb83…306fbacked Yes56c5,020$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+210.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8324…57fdbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes1c4,305$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes29c4,138$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2201136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes46c4,070$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.621540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+582.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,995$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0a…a86cbacked No78c3,930$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…bfdabacked No79c3,925$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes39c3,836$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.755044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc00d…6cd3backed No55c3,613$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.261040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b07…055fbacked No79c3,600$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1e…3325backed No78c3,580$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc7…f824backed No75c3,510$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d7…d21dbacked No78c3,420$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb35…e9c7backed No78c3,401$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf99d…4c07backed No78c3,360$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0333backed No78c3,350$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe492…5f31backed No78c3,349$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b71…f772backed No79c3,300$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5886…d85abacked No79c3,290$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6f…1b28backed No79c3,268$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e8…3cffbacked No78c3,228$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615b…4967backed No78c3,200$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e4…76d4backed No78c3,163$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac3…7115backed No78c3,150$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x688f…bc87backed No78c3,135$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8035…2789backed No78c3,100$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd803…3670backed No79c3,080$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b5…8d82backed No79c3,051$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4623…cc4dbacked Yes25c3,012$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c2,956$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.031,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab0…6c6dbacked No79c2,950$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa116…09bebacked No78c2,935$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6060…29b7backed Yes1c2,930$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6148…a0edbacked Yes37c2,885$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c4…6219backed No79c2,880$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab1…9f4fbacked No79c2,875$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2669…b071backed Yes0c2,827$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf78f…a051backed Yes1c2,823$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a33…8734backed Yes0c2,819$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes23c2,808$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.976883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb6…8711backed No79c2,770$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ef…89d2backed Yes0c2,769$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7f…76f2backed Yes0c2,743$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8b…a360backed No78c2,720$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0a…ad2fbacked No79c2,717$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa0…62fabacked Yes0c2,703$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa872…9931backed No78c2,700$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ecc…b6debacked Yes1c2,697$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf0…47bdbacked Yes0c2,689$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be8…9d93backed Yes56c2,660$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.161643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+79%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed No55c2,629$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.31560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…2c27backed No79c2,550$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd81…fe97backed No79c2,550$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a88ebacked Yes3c2,513$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed No66c2,138$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.175100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe4a…16a2backed Yes55c2,115$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4627…2802backed Yes40c2,067$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf1…2267backed Yes0c2,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c1,961$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.8332255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes43c1,941$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.762740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No65c1,919$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.81553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed Yes23c1,874$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes30c1,829$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.621216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7a…2487backed Yes60c1,757$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes18c1,739$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.684766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes29c1,639$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.851216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+309.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No70c1,631$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.661741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.