TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,994,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,994,279 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3239…cb61backed Yes0c192,640$193 inLost-$192.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ea…be1fbacked Yes0c191,350$191 inLost-$191.3550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2871…b108backed Yes0c182,800$183 inLost-$182.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes0c180,730$181 inLost-$180.7350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531c…70f5backed Yes0c157,720$158 inLost-$157.7240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e02…8b73backed Yes0c114,510$115 inLost-$114.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3d…23b0backed Yes0c102,490$102 inLost-$102.4960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f69…a8debacked Yes0c88,822$89 inLost-$88.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eaa…717ebacked Yes0c50,280$50 inLost-$50.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c41,602$42 inLost-$41.6230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c20,792$21 inLost-$20.79254%1 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-93.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost-$224440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d0…50babacked Yes1c5,933$30 inLost-$29.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c5,450$15 inLost-$15.251358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.