World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac916b490bff5080b326eb4086a4281a0da1f678fc6453e1dbe182d03d40505e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,576,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $638,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,576,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f29…f2a4backed Yes | 0c | 182,790$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e02…8b73backed Yes | 0c | 140,050$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…8fddbacked Yes | 0c | 127,798$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…24fcbacked Yes | 0c | 120,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 118,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…8980backed Yes | 0c | 114,740$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…c334backed Yes | 0c | 100,560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…8d81backed Yes | 0c | 93,450$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…b4d1backed Yes | 0c | 89,120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…cfbabacked Yes | 0c | 70,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…c88bbacked Yes | 0c | 66,020$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…00a5backed Yes | 0c | 47,235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Yes | 0c | 47,232$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 42,885$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 0c | 26,380$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 25,321$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 0c | 21,755$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b20…c6e9backed Yes | 1c | 21,703$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 21,434$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…d7f3backed Yes | 0c | 19,434$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…d86fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,434$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 18,308$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.54 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,106$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…d95dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,711$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a2…0d1cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,704$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 11,628$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…0c38backed Yes | 1c | 10,620$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…e8c6backed Yes | 0c | 9,906$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…ebbcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…b1bbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,326$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3787backed Yes | 0c | 5,220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…b186backed Yes | 0c | 5,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…dc87backed Yes | 2c | 4,757$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…0d5cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,622$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…5c34backed Yes | 6c | 4,505$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…3f5dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,422$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 5c | 4,007$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,895$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,153$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…98bcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,090$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…9203backed Yes | 0c | 2,865$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…d439backed Yes | 0c | 2,865$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…4437backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +397.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,765$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…541bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,752$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…dd9fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5066…5894backed Yes | 0c | 2,729$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…866ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,701$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa180…8c5abacked Yes | 1c | 2,658$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6237…a93abacked Yes | 0c | 2,648$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…38f2backed Yes | 0c | 2,571$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a296backed Yes | 0c | 2,327$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…d096backed Yes | 4c | 1,795$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,547$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…50f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,543$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,542$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,412$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61c…f19cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,269$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…b8e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6651…e3ebbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 6c | 944.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…b68bbacked Yes | 3c | 678.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…23e7backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.