World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9244a2a2fe4b9646eab7bfe81f175b69bc912d4c786c8eac988e74f34f224b8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,367,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,367,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…943fbacked Yes | 0c | 576,000$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…4627backed Yes | 0c | 486,000$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…333ebacked Yes | 0c | 455,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…a166backed Yes | 0c | 455,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…2efcbacked Yes | 0c | 432,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c9…42dcbacked Yes | 0c | 432,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d31…0fc6backed Yes | 0c | 432,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…c2a6backed Yes | 0c | 420,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…fa2ebacked Yes | 0c | 420,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…07c3backed Yes | 0c | 420,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…486bbacked Yes | 0c | 420,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…08a5backed Yes | 0c | 402,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf9…dde7backed Yes | 0c | 396,000$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…6409backed Yes | 0c | 385,000$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f2…59b5backed Yes | 0c | 384,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5924…a4c4backed Yes | 0c | 360,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c6…8fd6backed Yes | 0c | 360,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…1e50backed Yes | 0c | 357,990$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…cd2fbacked Yes | 0c | 353,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…2d98backed Yes | 0c | 349,990$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7018backed Yes | 0c | 331,000$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…2419backed Yes | 0c | 324,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…fb82backed Yes | 0c | 315,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7995…60febacked Yes | 0c | 314,990$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…8cd4backed Yes | 0c | 288,000$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…0ceabacked Yes | 0c | 281,990$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052f…5d62backed Yes | 0c | 270,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…0d92backed Yes | 0c | 252,000$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…e1d9backed Yes | 0c | 246,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a0…3fe6backed Yes | 0c | 245,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…6b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 240,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…95babacked Yes | 0c | 210,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a6dfbacked Yes | 0c | 208,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…ba93backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7025…42f0backed Yes | 0c | 198,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…ee69backed Yes | 0c | 198,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…12b0backed Yes | 0c | 187,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…4614backed Yes | 0c | 173,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…2a13backed Yes | 0c | 156,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…e53cbacked Yes | 0c | 144,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…1970backed Yes | 0c | 141,369$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…fa10backed Yes | 0c | 141,344$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…470cbacked Yes | 0c | 141,344$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…6403backed Yes | 0c | 141,314$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…7006backed Yes | 0c | 124,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…823cbacked Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…e438backed Yes | 0c | 79,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 56,950$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 0c | 35,900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 0c | 28,525$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 24,314$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…e90dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,876$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 8,966$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 3,992$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…d096backed Yes | 1c | 2,862$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,413$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?this page
- Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?Yes won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?No won
- Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No won
- Will there be no coalition by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.