TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec15…3942backed Yes2c2,374$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.894032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes41c1,356$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.3310531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f2…1255backed Yes2c1,264$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No48c848.31$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.6826339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No56c798.71$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8417243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes37c786.78$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6883332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes12c772.66$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes55c699.99$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.995850%29 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes59c625.13$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.0448331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes4c565.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb39…4e72backed Yes58c446.61$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.111040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes57c399.99$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.998176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c367.51$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No62c359.58$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2960851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes45c358.9$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0821350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes4c342.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6211138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32b7…ef87backed Yes15c330.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No53c274.14$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.357,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c265.87$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6bde…3eb2backed No53c265.51$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes60c258.03$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes25c255.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1919133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes66c231.16$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5711436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked Yes56c217.12$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…c535backed No47c205.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.411546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed No49c198.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.476538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes36c187$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes56c186.12$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.021,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed Yes59c172.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No70c165.98$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9647834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.427737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c149.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes32c149.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes29c145.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3576924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes35c141.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.092240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes57c139.36$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No40c124.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.974325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…1b7ebacked Yes49c122.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes65c121.74$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.531,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes56c119.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes32c119.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.661,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes15c110$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes74c103.3$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.951752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No34c102.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.927546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d8…a90ebacked No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8321448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608239%32 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387057.1%40 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6224010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes50c99.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.629139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a66…482fbacked Yes38c90.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No40c90.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes62c89.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes15c88.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes56c87.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.262737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes18c85.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5821919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes42c80.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.372759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No63c72.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.711,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes63c72.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.376258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No64c69.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.191,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0556…6934backed Yes36c69.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c57.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.333,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes58c53.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes26c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229a…dbc8backed Yes62c51.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c47.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1484759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d64…4a36backed Yes32c47.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153050%15 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes28c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.452030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes39c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.558551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes36c44.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a1…e244backed No45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes54c40.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.861729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.86045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ca3…335dbacked Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes45c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No61c38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes65c36.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.655056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes50c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.439162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes72c33.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7111436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes40c32.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.914852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes62c32.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes37c31.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7333839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac0…bee5backed Yes40c31.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cff…f86cbacked Yes62c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No57c29.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.652,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.