Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc528b40be813d39a18742efc9a047f058739c8b5aaa4cddf71161cea1984a909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 1c | 40,077$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.78 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,580$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,043$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.88 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 69c | 1,000$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.41 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 47c | 717.31$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.94 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed No | 5c | 673.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 663.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 50c | 550.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 49c | 539.6$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 536.97$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 68c | 522.41$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed No | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes | 56c | 467.33$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 61c | 458.09$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 453.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.21 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 2c | 443.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 440.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 46c | 429.31$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.44 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…ef87backed No | 12c | 421.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 45c | 358.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 37c | 299.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 16c | 232.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 213.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 61c | 181.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 51c | 174.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 166.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 165.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…482fbacked Yes | 46c | 149.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 25c | 149.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 40c | 134.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 29c | 126.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 65c | 126.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…5fc8backed Yes | 53c | 123.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 118.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…dc45backed No | 14c | 114.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…bee5backed No | 48c | 106.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 48c | 104.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 42c | 101.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…c141backed Yes | 43c | 93.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 90.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 89.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 51c | 88.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 43c | 86.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…f676backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 46c | 83.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 80.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 50c | 67.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 67.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 37c | 66.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…74c0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…3364backed Yes | 39c | 48.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ce…2b8abacked Yes | 45c | 44.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a631backed Yes | 59c | 41.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked No | 61c | 41.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…df24backed Yes | 37c | 41.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…2365backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 38.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 63c | 38.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 49c | 38.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…dbc8backed Yes | 43c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…663dbacked Yes | 53c | 33.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 51c | 32.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…2049backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…8f77backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 41c | 26.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…e644backed Yes | 62c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 52c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…c675backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…e58abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…7f7fbacked No | 61c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.