TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7658…e770backed No1c40,077$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.787546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No2c1,580$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0228329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes33c1,043$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.8810531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed No69c1,000$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.414348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes47c717.31$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.9483332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed No5c673.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.896725.4%17 W · 50 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No2c663.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.38520%0 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…4e72backed Yes50c550.73$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.11040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No49c539.6$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes47c536.97$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.622240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes68c522.41$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.916538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No11c499.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes56c467.33$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.161330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No61c458.09$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.168176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes41c453.21$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.2160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x979c…b563backed No2c443.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No55c440.66$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes46c429.31$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4426339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b7…ef87backed No12c421.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes45c358.9$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0921350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes37c299.96$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No16c232.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6876924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No50c213.35$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes61c181.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.56258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked Yes51c174.66$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.723751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c166.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No59c165.64$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3734457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes18c149.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.991,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a66…482fbacked Yes46c149.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No25c149.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.081,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes40c134.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.741,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes29c126.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes65c126.15$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0154037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a9…5fc8backed Yes53c123.91$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes36c118.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5316924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba22…dc45backed No14c114.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac0…bee5backed No48c106.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.311145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes48c104.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.161729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes42c101.86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5221448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d8…a90ebacked No48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes47c99.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.993641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdce…c141backed Yes43c93.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+69.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No61c90.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes44c89.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.641,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4198…d38fbacked Yes51c88.47$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes43c86.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe74e…f676backed Yes48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.33911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes46c83.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.141752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes40c81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.831136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No52c80.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.592,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65da…69d2backed Yes76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.492425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes50c79.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed Yes50c67.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.145959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c67.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.921,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes37c66.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.769139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed No57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.56045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.879162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cbb…74c0backed No78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes44c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x597b…3364backed Yes39c48.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes63c47.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4221919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.513243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ce…2b8abacked Yes45c44.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6718035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a73…a631backed Yes59c41.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa771…5a8bbacked No61c41.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x985a…df24backed Yes37c41.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0810956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe03e…2365backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No43c38.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7284759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No63c38.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0435362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No49c38.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.532,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes55c36.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.522744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229a…dbc8backed Yes43c33.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e16…663dbacked Yes53c33.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes51c32.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.094852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…4395backed Yes71c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.87650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed No65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d2…2049backed No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ab…8f77backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.433839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes52c29.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9111436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes41c26.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9245127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed No66c22.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b4d…e644backed Yes62c20.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.92366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0646…3d3dbacked No52c20.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.639363.4%59 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…8d60backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x487d…c675backed No57c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…e58abacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x25ad…95eebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0507…7f7fbacked No61c18.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.