TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,336,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$943,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,336,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 471 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes23c43,228$9,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,875.826041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes1c39,579$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.271060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+138%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes33c31,127$10,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,189.1717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes8c30,488$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.49128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-94.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f74…f100backed Yes31c22,500$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes20c18,306$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.882030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes17c17,614$3,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes7c16,555$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.9132814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c02…2b85backed Yes5c15,639$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bfd…f9f0backed Yes7c15,008$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714c…f68dbacked Yes11c11,900$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30fa…079dbacked No42c11,500$4,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,704.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…9550backed No69c11,400$7,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,556.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a0…c7f2backed No69c11,100$7,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8434…ba8bbacked Yes10c10,095$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes32c9,861$3,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.213150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c9,850$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes22c9,229$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.2710331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed Yes4c9,181$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes17c8,070$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes31c7,835$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.6611625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes32c6,835$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid+51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes33c6,665$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.421637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes1c6,390$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.243925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c6,315$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.991,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes13c6,166$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.186331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260b…3759backed Yes58c6,000$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+79.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No76c5,832$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.4532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes9c5,599$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.88555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbdd…8d14backed Yes58c5,500$3,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,206.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+79.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes29c5,326$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.873339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes3c5,229$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c5,077$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3314212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80012451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c4,842$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.43462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c4,412$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c4,341$3,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.1836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes14c4,283$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.927125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c3,948$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes16c3,928$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes3c3,916$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed Yes1c3,883$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes3c3,686$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7618431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32dc…bd83backed Yes6c3,217$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fed…1913backed Yes9c3,032$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…068ebacked Yes4c2,907$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+166.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes15c2,893$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.482445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+88.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed Yes2c2,766$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7741…493abacked Yes15c2,642$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked No49c2,540$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes3c2,484$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.781717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes41c2,437$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.491921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No74c2,405$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.481258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c2,360$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.02205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes2c2,292$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.732317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3905…6022backed Yes10c2,281$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-84.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c56…a2b8backed Yes1c2,187$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c2,185$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.3310632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes5c2,127$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.596015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes29c2,100$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x491a…27ccbacked Yes29c2,089$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d8…183ebacked Yes6c2,084$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes3c2,016$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.612114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes2c2,009$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.092227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes29c2,005$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.052718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d2…7772backed Yes8c2,003$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8888…5b57backed Yes2c1,946$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+283.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,934$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8618.2%5 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf165…2194backed Yes10c1,910$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes3c1,865$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.423426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0619…90f7backed Yes2c1,815$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes1c1,788$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.762524%6 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes32c1,750$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.335726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb2…15d2backed Yes6c1,720$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8316…457bbacked Yes1c1,713$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.372412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c72…a042backed Yes45c1,707$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.311225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes24c1,694$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes1c1,572$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.415710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes17c1,500$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.551717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes34c1,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes3c1,414$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.996426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc923…7154backed Yes2c1,413$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-79.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8661…d3e5backed Yes1c1,395$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4807…48b2backed Yes44c1,377$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes4c1,363$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked Yes9c1,362$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.971323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes32c1,343$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.223639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes16c1,322$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.846541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb57e…ae83backed Yes47c1,282$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes27c1,282$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2628524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd870…8658backed Yes9c1,258$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x530c…af7bbacked Yes5c1,236$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac2e…95e6backed Yes2c1,218$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes21c1,205$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.511711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes2c1,172$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.584017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe862…7d6bbacked Yes13c1,150$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x619a…02b6backed Yes4c1,146$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes18c1,123$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.