Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a218be0204c575b1e5ba67b5d0f9619e010ff8c918abd1561409432f498c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $461,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 1c | 73,618$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 24,875$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 21,328$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,031$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 9c | 11,790$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.3 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,088$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 2c | 9,934$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…26b0backed Yes | 2c | 7,613$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 2c | 6,029$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 5c | 5,321$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.52 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 2c | 5,285$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 5,104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…42a5backed Yes | 2c | 4,938$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed Yes | 1c | 4,696$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…1becbacked Yes | 4c | 4,451$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,268$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,071$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec0…abc2backed Yes | 2c | 3,593$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,006$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…1342backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153c…82c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,851$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…c7e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,728$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…b722backed Yes | 1c | 2,557$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…ea11backed Yes | 4c | 2,103$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 1c | 1,969$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 2c | 1,909$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,840$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…b63bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,393$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,381$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…0e6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…9f4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…0610backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…67f4backed Yes | 4c | 1,124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,054$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 930.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 2c | 871.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…a89cbacked Yes | 1c | 835$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 821.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…e07bbacked Yes | 2c | 736$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…f3fdbacked Yes | 2c | 731.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162a…97e0backed Yes | 1c | 729$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…183ebacked Yes | 2c | 687.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 4c | 685.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…c046backed Yes | 2c | 664.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…512cbacked Yes | 2c | 633$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 5c | 561.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…476fbacked Yes | 2c | 543.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 523.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…49a0backed Yes | 19c | 441$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…39e9backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a76…1c13backed Yes | 19c | 387$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…c61abacked Yes | 19c | 276$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb498…5fbdbacked Yes | 19c | 252$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 242.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 240.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…0cc2backed Yes | 19c | 192$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…a643backed Yes | 20c | 153.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…bbe2backed Yes | 8c | 141$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…43b1backed Yes | 19c | 133$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f50…9569backed Yes | 20c | 102.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…07f2backed Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd64…db54backed Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes won
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.