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Movies · resolved market

Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,625,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,625,691 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 493 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c45,969$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.56190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e6…95e2backed Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4358…a85dbacked Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe310…5028backed Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe966…b5d1backed Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be6…790ebacked Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b88…3003backed Yes0c31,283$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe799…94abbacked Yes0c30,193$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6727…82a8backed Yes0c30,193$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe682…c4e8backed Yes0c30,193$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7c…ee08backed Yes0c29,647$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…fdbdbacked Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4bb…5fc1backed Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…471abacked Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf4…6fcabacked Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7673…81d2backed Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f6…3190backed Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2931…85bfbacked Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…d77abacked Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0118…1b75backed Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2b…0738backed Yes0c28,321$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d0…2b1bbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ed…056cbacked Yes1c24,983$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db6…e957backed Yes1c24,903$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…f197backed Yes1c24,591$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3348…88adbacked Yes0c24,560$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd710…1d60backed Yes1c24,440$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…b722backed Yes0c24,295$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.381118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b1…2584backed Yes1c24,077$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c23,912$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.28205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bc…eef2backed Yes1c23,837$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6412…7253backed Yes1c23,464$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda06…e0e1backed Yes1c23,446$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b00…6e75backed Yes1c23,360$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…a514backed Yes1c23,359$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3da…8387backed Yes0c22,929$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c22,235$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.17462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc0…e2e3backed Yes1c21,917$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb632…2be5backed Yes0c21,383$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5666…4a5abacked Yes0c20,130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28be…d66dbacked Yes0c19,905$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3973…a753backed Yes1c19,651$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fd…d551backed Yes1c19,001$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6614…6547backed Yes1c18,401$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…a313backed Yes1c18,346$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778f…fc4bbacked Yes1c18,004$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2648…1010backed Yes1c17,764$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9419…d407backed Yes1c17,710$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a2…c214backed Yes1c17,689$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…81cfbacked Yes0c17,346$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ea…d2e7backed Yes0c15,846$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…61afbacked Yes0c15,846$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e42…33b4backed Yes0c15,846$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…5eb0backed Yes0c15,846$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0945…3d5ebacked Yes0c15,801$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2252…83f1backed Yes0c15,801$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5e…b452backed Yes0c15,801$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c8…b543backed Yes0c15,801$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Yes1c14,807$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7755…4d62backed Yes1c14,670$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb228…dfaabacked Yes1c14,110$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0663…3421backed Yes1c14,069$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7078…5f82backed Yes1c14,011$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2a…e19fbacked Yes1c14,001$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229a…4ef3backed Yes1c13,999$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f1…d0d6backed Yes1c13,977$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe4…3efbbacked Yes1c13,969$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…5a42backed Yes1c13,967$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa318…f986backed Yes1c13,967$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4479…cedebacked Yes1c13,963$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67fc…fd40backed Yes1c13,944$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb31…8d1ebacked Yes1c13,920$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d48…9fc5backed Yes1c13,909$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dac…8a81backed Yes1c13,900$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…214dbacked Yes1c13,896$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324b…241abacked Yes1c13,874$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ece…d4fcbacked Yes1c13,873$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…59bebacked Yes1c13,846$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8c…8ad6backed Yes1c13,827$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c3…584dbacked Yes1c13,819$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b84…128dbacked Yes1c13,799$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…df63backed Yes1c13,796$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e3…c14abacked Yes1c13,783$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d8…2722backed Yes1c13,777$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da7…e20fbacked Yes1c13,774$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3292…26f0backed Yes1c13,753$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868c…f3a4backed Yes1c13,749$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe107…70c8backed Yes1c13,737$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea2…deefbacked Yes1c13,733$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…bcd9backed Yes1c13,724$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb91…ab88backed Yes1c13,721$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fe…ef73backed Yes1c13,719$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x820b…0032backed Yes1c13,711$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205e…a316backed Yes1c13,711$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8182…f3bbbacked Yes1c13,710$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…3017backed Yes1c13,710$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864f…cf6abacked Yes1c13,707$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a1…a73cbacked Yes1c13,704$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…2df6backed Yes1c13,697$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.