TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$603,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$564,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b59…5f20backed Yes18c72,311$13,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,015.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d9…9370backed Yes17c54,539$9,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,271.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes1c21,339$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.771915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c11,298$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.11711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8aa…1342backed Yes3c8,728$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cee…a307backed Yes0c8,607$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes19c7,282$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.3613150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c6,940$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5214212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5024…0e6abacked Yes3c6,560$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes4c6,296$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1414425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,229$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.08462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes15c5,149$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ace…9850backed Yes1c4,924$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes13c4,464$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.05714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e3…5ac5backed Yes16c4,075$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes11c4,030$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.415536.4%20 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes11c3,800$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.16023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes1c3,726$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.45190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes6c3,513$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684e…4547backed Yes1c3,393$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes4c2,909$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.02555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c2,902$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.476622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,722$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.711,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes15c2,356$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.342227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes16c1,912$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.585026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee6…eb04backed Yes15c1,908$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c1,898$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes1c1,720$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Yes2c1,700$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes13c1,600$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.071414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes4c1,494$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.416614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes10c1,479$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2419031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5545…f481backed Yes16c1,409$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Yes13c1,320$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.11926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd16…d7e2backed Yes2c1,317$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes16c1,202$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.172416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes17c1,130$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes17c1,100$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.141050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes1c1,062$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842d…9c19backed Yes12c1,012$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef05…3dffbacked Yes24c1,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.361662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed No78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x120c…5e14backed Yes17c976$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes19c958$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes13c839.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6210123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes19c834.86$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6211625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes11c672.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.963339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb088…3862backed Yes14c585.71$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2237…97b0backed Yes12c580$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes9c565.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.72528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3add…ea11backed Yes10c562.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c6e…5c9dbacked Yes5c556.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes7c512.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8716040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked No78c500$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes25c449.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.82718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf39…42a5backed Yes8c449.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d47…0592backed Yes6c430.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes14c425.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.06520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7201…fe41backed Yes14c420$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes14c419.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…5455backed No78c411.76$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.591833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6571…9827backed No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfed0…b1b8backed Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ac…bc2dbacked Yes10c376.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f6…d494backed Yes13c375.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes6c357$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.422437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…67f4backed Yes15c344.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes25c318.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.691717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7586…99cebacked Yes6c314.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes14c310.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.869851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe933…500bbacked Yes15c250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-83.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4c…e39abacked Yes23c246$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40d…63c8backed Yes23c239$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes17c233$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e5…24babacked Yes20c232.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes13c226.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.753917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes21c225$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7523741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes18c219.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.116350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c216$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x168f…c046backed Yes7c211.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes12c210$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.25831%18 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78f…8917backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes13c199.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d8…dbc6backed Yes8c196.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x400b…1b03backed Yes23c179$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes20c176.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.09326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd70e…6ea9backed Yes7c155.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbf…784abacked Yes21c155.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d5…a491backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed Yes21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes24c128.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c4…9bd5backed Yes13c119.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75de…8654backed No77c118$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c116.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.