Movies · resolved market
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c90561ffcdd15e5258609a891f227dbde5d48e219cd5319c231bb5dda56a4ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,734,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,734,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e12…451ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 16,452$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,021$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 13,837$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 1c | 6,726$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 0c | 6,146$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,999$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,972$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed Yes | 3c | 3,017$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64d…7a29backed Yes | 3c | 2,355$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,490$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…eb04backed Yes | 3c | 1,423$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…e685backed Yes | 1c | 1,383$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,322$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,196$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…09c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 839.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…fe00backed Yes | 1c | 799.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 3c | 449.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…44fabacked Yes | 7c | 420.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f6…d494backed Yes | 3c | 394.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 3c | 339.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 5c | 203$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes won
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.