Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100d4a803c25223d97a5695ed1c7588367c71e5cf7ab8be772af7b3d8f5130dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43c6…e4eabacked Yes | 49c | 5,100$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…867fbacked No | 51c | 5,100$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked No | 10c | 4,030$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 2,000$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 1c | 1,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 64c | 1,166$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.4 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 1,026$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 2c | 783$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 75c | 732.02$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 59c | 417.96$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 379.26$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 46c | 364.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.72 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 51c | 321.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 48c | 279.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 61c | 243.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…cbadbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 52c | 214.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 45c | 158.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 146.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 64c | 145.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed No | 58c | 142.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 136.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 60c | 134.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557c…1a84backed Yes | 77c | 129.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf291…5fe8backed Yes | 65c | 123.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 51c | 109.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 75c | 106.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 104.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 50c | 103.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 55c | 100.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…5736backed No | 48c | 100.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 69c | 95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…f663backed No | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 65c | 94.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…1119backed Yes | 54c | 92.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 35c | 87.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 79.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 77.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 55c | 70.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…aaf2backed No | 65c | 65.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 64.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 42c | 63.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 64c | 61.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 50c | 61.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 49c | 57.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 56.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 53.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…d8d4backed Yes | 54c | 52.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 49c | 51.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 60c | 49.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…1a27backed No | 49c | 46.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 45c | 45.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…6928backed No | 47c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…871cbacked No | 46c | 41.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22b…acfcbacked Yes | 55c | 40.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 44c | 39.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 37.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 35.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…18f7backed No | 51c | 32.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 54c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 69c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 50c | 31.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…04ecbacked Yes | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…14efbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 52c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…0effbacked No | 50c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d7…37b8backed No | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…a70bbacked No | 48c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.