Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb485238115c48b09860c0a34f6a6183e829386a6f96e78ca3816a85492836be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,763$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 7c | 1,113$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 6c | 998.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 27c | 986.03$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 73c | 953.43$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 12c | 824.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 803.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 635$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 539.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 366.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…a767backed Yes | 8c | 315.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 290.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 6c | 275.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…cbadbacked Yes | 40c | 250.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked Yes | 13c | 195.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 10c | 181.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 12c | 181.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7789backed Yes | 7c | 180.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 9c | 172$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed Yes | 17c | 145.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked Yes | 12c | 135.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 134.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 24c | 127.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…fd57backed Yes | 16c | 126.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…19c5backed Yes | 24c | 108.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf291…5fe8backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 94.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 15c | 93.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed Yes | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…1a9bbacked Yes | 28c | 81.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 78.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…0fe8backed Yes | 15c | 74.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 58.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed No | 74c | 53.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 50.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 71c | 50.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…8655backed Yes | 28c | 47.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 33.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 72c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 72c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 80c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.