Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0c2645f409eaeed9a63359c23b1bf902f03295262dc5e859abd1f7d2914d70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,638$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.36 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 1,557$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…50b5backed Yes | 26c | 869.94$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 21c | 835.2$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 747.95$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.17 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 9c | 705.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 616.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 13c | 600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 586.49$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 26c | 552.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 28c | 547.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 44c | 545.88$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.25 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 41c | 520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 468.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 33c | 412.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…c141backed Yes | 76c | 393.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked No | 78c | 380.39$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 38c | 353.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 310.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 258.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed Yes | 25c | 245.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ce…2b8abacked Yes | 27c | 229.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 227.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 40c | 220.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…3176backed No | 65c | 215.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 61c | 212.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 19c | 205.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 51c | 202.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…3c39backed Yes | 61c | 200.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 33c | 199.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 15c | 189$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 27c | 182.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 55c | 180.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 165$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 42c | 163.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 62c | 160.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked No | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 141.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…43f1backed Yes | 34c | 141.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…89e9backed Yes | 18c | 134.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 79c | 132.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 130.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 26c | 130.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 61c | 127.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 122.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 120.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 119.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 118.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 42c | 113.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 50c | 113.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 45c | 108.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 23c | 99.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…19b1backed Yes | 30c | 98.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…663dbacked Yes | 67c | 98.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…eef0backed Yes | 61c | 87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 64c | 86.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…878abacked Yes | 40c | 85.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 84.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed No | 24c | 82.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 69c | 81.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 21c | 76.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 75.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 63c | 73.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 48c | 70.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 57c | 67.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 67.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 58c | 66.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 30c | 61.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 34c | 58.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 46c | 58.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 70c | 57.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 77c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 63c | 55.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 69c | 54.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 37c | 51.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 51.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 68c | 50.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 59c | 50.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…566cbacked Yes | 76c | 50.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…3163backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…bee5backed Yes | 59c | 48.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 71c | 43.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.