TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes23c1,638$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.368239%32 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes21c1,557$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b8…50b5backed Yes26c869.94$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes21c835.2$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7728718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No57c747.95$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1717243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes9c705.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8960235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes8c616.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes13c600$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7524010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No45c586.49$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.22,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes26c552.3$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes28c547.91$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes44c545.88$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2547834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes41c520$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.95848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c468.54$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd833…ba96backed No33c412.05$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.0512630.2%38 W · 88 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdce…c141backed Yes76c393.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+69.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked No78c380.39$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.466526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be4…009abacked Yes38c353.2$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.791127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes15c310.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.221,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes14c258.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed Yes25c245.83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.077546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99ce…2b8abacked Yes27c229.15$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c227.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No40c220.91$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.251,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…3176backed No65c215.3$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes61c212.66$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.781145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3605…7a79backed Yes19c205.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes51c202.56$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10318035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054a…3c39backed Yes61c200.67$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes33c199.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9911332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes15c189$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3529922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes27c182.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes55c180.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes32c165$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.058036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes42c163.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed No62c160.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7423633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked No70c142.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.254736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes20c141.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8590…43f1backed Yes34c141.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed Yes18c134.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-83.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24da…4c6dbacked No79c132.27$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.543070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No74c130.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4361760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes26c130.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6734633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes61c127.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9910542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No48c122.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes24c120.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.732,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c119.13$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.041,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes46c118.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No42c113.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5334457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes50c113.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.093826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes45c108.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.225536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0f…1147backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1221448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked No35c99.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.992725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9895942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No23c99.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.181,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x907f…19b1backed Yes30c98.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e16…663dbacked Yes67c98.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No46c94$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes58c87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4610650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf337…eef0backed Yes61c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes64c86.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.451,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed3…878abacked Yes40c85.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c84.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe734…c535backed No24c82.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.741546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No69c81.94$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.626236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.23641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c16…4890backed No21c76.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No66c75.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked No63c73.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.44850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes48c70.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No63c69.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.91,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes57c67.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6131567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes28c67.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.761,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes58c66.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.343432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes30c61.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.424963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes36c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6618842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65da…69d2backed Yes34c58.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.132425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes46c58.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.745016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes70c57.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.034852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes77c57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.891910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0646…3d3dbacked No63c55.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.719363.4%59 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed Yes65c55.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No69c54.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.35046%23 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No37c51.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.571,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes58c51.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0319937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff5…5237backed Yes59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes68c50.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.071729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes59c50.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd12…566cbacked Yes76c50.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.17366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.397334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9df2…3163backed Yes70c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac0…bee5backed Yes59c48.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.631145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No46c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.683,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes71c43.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.233342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.