Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3000f98f6130f8b2fdb93927c8541269fcb0d265faa6b2978e768e08b3024e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,389$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 2c | 2,119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,498$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,473$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,418$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 2c | 1,146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 1c | 734.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 9c | 665.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed Yes | 31c | 650.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 3c | 551.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 505.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 449.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 281.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…6417backed No | 78c | 249.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…627bbacked Yes | 10c | 245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 27c | 244.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 215.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 158.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 8c | 146.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 69c | 146.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 142$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 85.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 82.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 22c | 80.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 51c | 79.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 78.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 77.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…eef0backed Yes | 22c | 76.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 71.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 73c | 55.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 24c | 49.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 74c | 36.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7034backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…bee5backed No | 76c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b1ffbacked No | 68c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…7bdabacked No | 77c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.