TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e5c…d892backed No73c8,326$6,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,117.9457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes13c3,600$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,125.0747834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No1c3,518$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6528329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes75c3,119$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.248331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No3c2,266$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes72c1,755$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.138239%32 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes12c1,723$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.4710531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be4…009abacked No61c1,591$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.071127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes37c1,223$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.896852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes66c1,209$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.916538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed No1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes56c836.44$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.7895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes31c737.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.4629922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked No39c708.04$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2412125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed No49c630.48$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.913852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes65c629.07$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.512572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes44c550.96$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes62c547.91$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3466543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No28c534.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.021,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes13c503.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.3963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c499.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.672,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes21c474.73$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1316924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c468.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd136…6d68backed Yes65c450.88$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes12c437.77$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c400$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.761,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes79c389.16$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.581855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes58c320.97$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.831,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd833…ba96backed No45c311.93$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.312630.2%38 W · 88 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes71c299.45$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.47966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf340…e55bbacked No59c299$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes15c293.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c283.07$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes16c276.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.255839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes24c260$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes10c249.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.991,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xece5…c252backed Yes69c241.09$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.612065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c239.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked No30c238.25$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.628036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes52c230$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.93234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No38c224.4$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2b0…9b8ebacked Yes76c223.38$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes66c220$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4221448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8365…9ae7backed Yes72c216.18$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+317.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes10c212.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.691145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes8c200$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked No78c199.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4292…0fb8backed Yes71c168.25$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes13c166.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes64c155.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.294736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes52c154.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.56656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes21c152.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.936258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes18c150$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f1…02dfbacked No80c135.16$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.13757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+86.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1be…9780backed No38c134.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes69c132.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c132.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0819937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.41,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ccd…391bbacked Yes12c128.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+186.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No78c122.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6e…8fe7backed Yes79c119.49$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.19520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes29c119.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.311359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes33c118.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.492744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No53c117.34$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.075046%23 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes74c116.96$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes12c111.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.53243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes38c105.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.435016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes66c102.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6622…e28bbacked Yes70c101.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.423951.3%20 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b0…f46fbacked No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.482254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3605…7a79backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5915759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd90…0a27backed Yes19c98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+86.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24da…4c6dbacked Yes72c92.62$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.633070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed Yes58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes65c76.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2204…0916backed Yes28c75.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes75c74.21$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.373342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes25c72.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac0…bee5backed Yes17c70.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.261145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9910151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No25c62.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.369262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xb556…c3c6backed Yes66c60.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3154…67f5backed Yes60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…22e9backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf291…5fe8backed No33c59.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes22c59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.287737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes18c57.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.294852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes33c52.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.111,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No37c52.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0451…bae9backed Yes20c50.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+408%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.166349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d64…4a36backed No65c49.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.043050%15 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bad…4c75backed No32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes43c45.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes33c45.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.419529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff5…5237backed Yes62c43.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.681154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1de…22a8backed Yes52c43.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.831080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd948…58e2backed No23c42.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.