Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e0735a21173348ddc506057eadab90b39d5ce91567b47b7b666daeed37e74a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 73c | 8,326$6,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,117.94 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,600$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,125.07 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 1c | 3,518$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 75c | 3,119$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.2 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 3c | 2,266$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,755$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.13 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,723$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.47 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked No | 61c | 1,591$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 37c | 1,223$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.89 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 66c | 1,209$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 836.44$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.78 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 31c | 737.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.46 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 39c | 708.04$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.24 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 49c | 630.48$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 65c | 629.07$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 44c | 550.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.19 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 62c | 547.91$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 28c | 534.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 503.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.39 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 499.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 474.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.13 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 468.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…6d68backed Yes | 65c | 450.88$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 12c | 437.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.89 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 79c | 389.16$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 58c | 320.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 45c | 311.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 71c | 299.45$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…e55bbacked No | 59c | 299$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 15c | 293.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 283.07$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 16c | 276.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 24c | 260$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 69c | 241.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 239.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 30c | 238.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 52c | 230$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 38c | 224.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…9b8ebacked Yes | 76c | 223.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…9ae7backed Yes | 72c | 216.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +317.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 10c | 212.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…0fb8backed Yes | 71c | 168.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 13c | 166.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 64c | 155.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 154.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 21c | 152.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…91b2backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…02dfbacked No | 80c | 135.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…9780backed No | 38c | 134.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 69c | 132.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 132.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…391bbacked Yes | 12c | 128.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 122.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…8fe7backed Yes | 79c | 119.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 29c | 119.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 33c | 118.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 53c | 117.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 74c | 116.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 12c | 111.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 38c | 105.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…c1bfbacked Yes | 66c | 102.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 70c | 101.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…0a27backed Yes | 19c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked Yes | 72c | 92.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 65c | 76.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…0916backed Yes | 28c | 75.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 75c | 74.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…bee5backed Yes | 17c | 70.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 25c | 62.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…c3c6backed Yes | 66c | 60.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…67f5backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf291…5fe8backed No | 33c | 59.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 18c | 57.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 52.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 37c | 52.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…bae9backed Yes | 20c | 50.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +408%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed No | 65c | 49.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…4c75backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 43c | 45.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 33c | 45.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed Yes | 62c | 43.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…22a8backed Yes | 52c | 43.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…58e2backed No | 23c | 42.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.