TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6756…99ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT6526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$35.12
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.88
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.57
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.58
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.59
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$13.39
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$13.35
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$28.16
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$337Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$87.9
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.74
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$122.12
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.76
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+30.6%+$30.6
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+63.4%+$61.41
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.34
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$14.73
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+304%+$30.8
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15.1
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolinabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,473.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$202.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.