Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab6cb49862878ead9c12a2cd79cd0367f1de879ba254b833a1cb435fdb2ddd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,207 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 70c | 38,401$26,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,881.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked Yes | 30c | 38,400$11,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,880 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 39c | 1,874$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.78 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed No | 58c | 1,069$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…a395backed No | 1c | 1,054$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 74c | 1,029$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 19c | 991.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 844.95$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 65c | 773.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.18 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 701.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 695.63$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 30c | 649.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 43c | 644.22$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.53 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 35c | 620.92$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 578.05$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 541.87$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 531.66$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 69c | 510.82$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 33c | 499.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 75c | 465.33$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 458.39$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 39c | 415$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.21 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed No | 42c | 412.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 44c | 410.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.76 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…b6cdbacked No | 77c | 389.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 44c | 372.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.17 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 371$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 341.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.75 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 334.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 331.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 323.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 26c | 307.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 293.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 37c | 268.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 254.89$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 42c | 235.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…32e2backed Yes | 42c | 235.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 37c | 207.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 39c | 204.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 172.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 170.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 168.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked No | 62c | 161.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 66c | 157.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 154.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 20c | 154$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 68c | 153.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 44c | 149.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…4d7fbacked Yes | 41c | 146.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 44c | 144.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…b085backed Yes | 37c | 144.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 44c | 142.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 138.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Yes | 44c | 137.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 131.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 129.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 39c | 127.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 36c | 123.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 58c | 121.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 62c | 118.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 38c | 106.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 47c | 105.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 36c | 105.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 104.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…2d4bbacked Yes | 41c | 104.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 100.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…780bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 98.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 27c | 92.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 90.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 40c | 85.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 26c | 84.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 37c | 81.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 51c | 77.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 77.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 49c | 76.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 75.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 72.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 72.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed No | 71c | 69.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 32c | 68.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 25c | 66.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 45c | 66.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 50c | 66.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 56c | 66.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 66.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 32c | 62.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 60.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 58c | 57.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 56.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.