Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23bc81b09bda9de91f72fed82322aa2f5ce4af3d4868fbb0e0ed676e0757dd4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,309 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,175$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 873.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 12c | 786.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 724.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 18c | 602.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 530.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked Yes | 8c | 510.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 488.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 12c | 419.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 401.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 389.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 12c | 368$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 16c | 367.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 348.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 339.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 300.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 17c | 291.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 265.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 16c | 248.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 231.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 223.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 215.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 209.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 80c | 175.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…51c9backed Yes | 12c | 167.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 16c | 166.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 165.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 158$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 19c | 146.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 18c | 142.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked No | 79c | 135.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 130.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 15c | 130.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 77c | 128.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 20c | 127.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 11c | 126.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 11c | 120.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…5b9cbacked Yes | 13c | 120.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 120.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 11c | 117.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 13c | 108.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…aed1backed Yes | 19c | 107.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 14c | 106.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 16c | 105.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 21c | 97.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 18c | 97.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 94.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 93.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 14c | 79.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 78c | 75.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…1380backed Yes | 24c | 72.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 72.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 15c | 65.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 62.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…d830backed Yes | 20c | 61.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 52.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.