Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5921d7e2c9ef9f59c0e33da63b4c542887b491455ea52b36acd67afa7d7d6f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,850 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed Yes | 46c | 21,000$9,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,660 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked No | 54c | 21,000$11,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,660 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 49c | 1,349$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.5 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…a395backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 937.33$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4f94backed Yes | 54c | 861.36$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 65c | 662.58$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 625.93$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 58c | 534.21$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 20c | 489.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 464.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 455.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 446.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 420.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 35c | 415$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 43c | 407.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 373.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 25c | 367.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 34c | 358.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 342.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 56c | 319.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 39c | 315.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 306$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 301.12$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 291.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 279.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 269.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 265.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 45c | 264.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 262.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 22c | 249.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 35c | 235$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…b085backed Yes | 24c | 222.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 55c | 211.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…b6cdbacked Yes | 50c | 200.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 193.89$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 47c | 177.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 37c | 177.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 28c | 165.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 158.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 147.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 54c | 141.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 46c | 140.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980c…74cebacked Yes | 41c | 122.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 56c | 114.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 38c | 111.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 29c | 109.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 39c | 108.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 106.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 106.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 70c | 105.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 38c | 104.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 55c | 100.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…6deebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…e228backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 99.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 37c | 93.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 93.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 52c | 85.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 84.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 84.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 53c | 77.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 74.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 29c | 69.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 57c | 66.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 50c | 66.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 57c | 64.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 44c | 63.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 28c | 63.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 61.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 24c | 61.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 55c | 60.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 47c | 57.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 79c | 53.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…db85backed Yes | 19c | 52.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…2bbfbacked No | 65c | 51.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 50c | 51.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.