TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,521 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca22…71a0backed Yes6c927.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.121414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-59.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes18c886.27$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes44c722.07$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.929429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes14c700$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.351,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes8c650$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No72c619.96$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes34c449.63$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c425.42$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.661,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes37c360.05$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.081838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes3c345$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0142315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c337.08$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.573,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed No60c335.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.974037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No32c335.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes56c314.14$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes50c312.1$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.27823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes38c305.84$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes48c295$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5135843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes8c293.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8333620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c292.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.382,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c280$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.064,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes70c264.01$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.787832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dec…a0ccbacked No59c210.64$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.64366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes33c208.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.444032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes37c204$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No57c199.25$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes15c195.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0260523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c191.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes42c189.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes35c179.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.821330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes48c178.11$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8516434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed Yes58c171.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes53c163.42$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No61c157.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed No52c155.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.497936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes64c155.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x093a…1b3fbacked No70c142.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.941973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c132.7$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed Yes15c132.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5711129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes70c132.31$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No46c119.85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.869656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes40c113.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3219531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes34c112.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.852846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes44c104.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes39c102.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe918…f872backed No45c101.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes42c101.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes19c100.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.114139%16 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes56c100.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5623633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No46c100.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.728551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c99.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.788438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2938…cce8backed No61c98.83$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.884517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes31c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes43c93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes55c90.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked No64c90$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.735862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c89.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.17,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c82.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No42c80.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…5c16backed No30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4914…722ebacked Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305429.6%16 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes45c73.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3312230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes32c73.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes38c72.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.783435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes43c70.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes46c65.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes48c64.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.071952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No58c62.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.281,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes24c62.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.436123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes32c55.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9955919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes33c54.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.051,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea65…d381backed No63c53.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.713548.6%17 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes58c51.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8826…9483backed Yes40c50.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a8…642bbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.862853.6%15 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468f…a738backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.212632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes42c47.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes50c46.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d5b…cc7abacked No45c46.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.361020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes43c45.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes65c45.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.871844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.133839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f1…9756backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-72.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.425536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.544553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9965…c703backed Yes39c38.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…9397backed No58c38.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.864862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No66c37.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.821,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes41c36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…69ffbacked Yes57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.