Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6f90cb390051bb70614392161b28912a51d8a71ccaadb9911d0f7763eecbc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 8c | 2,563$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 750.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 5c | 629.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 18c | 618.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 16c | 611.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 586.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 25c | 553.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…9afabacked No | 79c | 377.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 10c | 374.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 359.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 350.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 349.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 7c | 347.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 336.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 335.4$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 328.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 7c | 300.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked No | 70c | 300$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 32c | 298.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…d4d5backed No | 77c | 253.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 79c | 252.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 240.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 18c | 226.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 5c | 209.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…0f78backed No | 75c | 202.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 193.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 191.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 31c | 172.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 79c | 170.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 9c | 160.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 155.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dec…a0ccbacked No | 75c | 154.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 152.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 150.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 138.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked Yes | 14c | 135.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 132.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 28c | 115.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…ddc8backed No | 80c | 111.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 106.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 106.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 76c | 105.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 101.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 100.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…2a57backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…41adbacked Yes | 21c | 93.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 91.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed Yes | 18c | 81.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 21c | 80.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 28c | 73.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 27c | 68.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 22c | 65.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed No | 77c | 64.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 24c | 63.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 60.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5d…05e8backed No | 78c | 60.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 25c | 58.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 57.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…a3d4backed No | 74c | 55.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed No | 70c | 54.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…79bdbacked Yes | 19c | 54.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 28c | 51.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 71c | 49.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 74c | 47.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 22c | 44.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 41.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 74c | 38.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 27c | 36.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 67c | 26.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 77c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.