TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef98…7926backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed Yes14c2,309$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1613453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8828…ffd7backed Yes1c1,685$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed No76c1,054$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.052944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes5c999.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5524010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes43c698.81$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes6c523.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7646824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes54c466.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes34c426.79$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.599429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c390.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c342.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.772,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No57c330.93$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8918727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes10c327.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes27c308.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8129642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes14c294.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.977823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No53c249.45$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4818041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c235$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes49c226.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.817832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c210.51$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.221,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes42c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes55c196.31$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.634850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes28c186.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes62c161.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes39c158.86$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.734032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d22…2c96backed Yes39c153.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+143.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c151.4$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No51c146.87$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe848…6041backed Yes59c136.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.411729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c135.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes48c129.34$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0816432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf649…5bb6backed Yes52c124.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.442725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes47c124.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No57c121.22$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes43c114.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.145635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No52c110.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes39c109.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes43c109.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes64c108.69$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x514f…2be0backed No46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.075151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No80c104.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.146753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c100.16$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3423633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x093a…1b3fbacked No69c98.97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes57c97.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes46c91.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No50c88.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.289656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes45c87.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes51c82.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6925839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes36c82.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3320144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes37c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes55c79.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4914…722ebacked Yes55c72.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405429.6%16 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes39c72.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.674,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes56c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe273…e74bbacked Yes57c70.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81a…665fbacked Yes44c67.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No63c60.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd095…4d12backed Yes64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.27334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No32c59.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.798438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes35c59.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes60c59.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3657659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes42c59.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked No58c58.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.567229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0943…ca76backed Yes54c58.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.651952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes61c57.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.91330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes39c57.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2516036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes52c55.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6626834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes29c54.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes41c53.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes48c51.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa6…0062backed Yes58c51.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes58c51.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5560851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked Yes51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012237.7%46 W · 76 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes46c49.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No56c46.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes52c45.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes44c45.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c43.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes55c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9523231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62065%13 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.921,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x599d…dcd0backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No39c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes43c39.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1333839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256e…1867backed No60c38.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes45c37.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes65c37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0517536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No60c36.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8826…9483backed Yes55c36.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes52c34.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes38c33.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.831,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.