TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,194,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,849,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,194,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,032 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd16…1a5abacked No0c2,008,630$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8597…8f9bbacked No0c1,590,568$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27eb…94ddbacked No0c1,518,287$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf039…cb4abacked No0c1,499,800$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c1,237,843$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.79460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No0c618,360$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0179…43f3backed No0c505,098$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ddf…2598backed No0c486,277$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3847…df89backed No1c408,585$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,770.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked No0c400,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8324…57fdbacked No0c397,295$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed No1c364,194$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x935f…87dabacked No0c293,260$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dea…e49fbacked No2c248,675$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No0c243,336$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d02…92b0backed No1c208,717$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed No1c205,279$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.690%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbe…decdbacked No0c199,670$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed No0c198,500$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked No1c187,519$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4459…504abacked No0c173,730$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d9…dfdbbacked No1c165,185$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…ec89backed No1c164,647$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daf…ce0abacked No0c160,073$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked No1c156,192$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d6d…d36abacked No1c156,170$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5243…1aa6backed No0c155,684$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked No0c154,570$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9970%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed No0c153,559$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No0c150,509$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b99…1dd2backed No0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…7593backed No0c143,119$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed No1c138,793$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc6…e106backed No1c137,158$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36f…ac47backed No0c128,350$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2398…a2d3backed No1c124,567$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed No0c120,038$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.68333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc37…fa31backed No4c119,701$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…9255backed No0c118,976$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4073…aa72backed No1c118,065$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a05…0eedbacked No2c115,946$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…6090backed No0c110,375$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7714…0a8abacked No0c104,333$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7c…ce17backed No1c104,257$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5055…14bebacked No2c101,384$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed No0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d59…1bd8backed No1c92,513$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0fb…4db9backed No0c91,016$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4424…4cc6backed No0c90,708$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…8d55backed No1c90,393$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c88,684$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.369613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x679d…6f07backed No1c87,316$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed No1c85,152$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4698…2fb2backed No11c84,567$9,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,405.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…7cdabacked No1c83,950$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9200…1b9bbacked No1c83,817$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc58…9a26backed No0c83,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed No1c82,281$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…f254backed No0c79,816$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa682…2303backed No1c76,891$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf123…72e4backed No2c76,515$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe2…c8cdbacked No0c76,402$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ed18backed No0c72,448$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed No0c70,215$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8809…6f4abacked No0c69,330$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21bb…3c5ebacked No1c68,512$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…a3cbbacked No2c66,584$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdda3…6bfdbacked No0c65,070$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c8…bbd4backed No0c64,105$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd7…e33abacked No1c62,302$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd983…29ddbacked No0c61,650$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed No2c60,284$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked No1c60,062$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a7…5892backed No0c60,010$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…31e1backed No3c59,144$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed No1c58,929$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf539…1a22backed No0c58,779$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed No0c58,233$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c5…a94fbacked No0c57,468$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2e…fd7dbacked No0c56,953$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…59abbacked No1c55,641$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed No3c54,805$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed No0c54,268$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd6…8b21backed No0c53,437$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6de…7471backed No0c52,863$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb62…2653backed No0c52,855$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d5…81f6backed No1c52,251$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda1…8cd6backed No0c51,864$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fe…1221backed No1c51,442$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked No7c50,806$3,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92cd…9740backed No0c50,654$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d3…e8e4backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…a09dbacked No0c49,730$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…7728backed No0c47,093$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed No4c45,877$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.711040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…24b5backed No0c45,126$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1d…1f1fbacked No5c42,869$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed No0c40,147$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed No1c40,000$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.