TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,318 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes48c634.21$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.173732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c299$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.976,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes43c296.09$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes17c275.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes56c250.4$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402532%8 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c250.21$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes49c244.37$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2929137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked No55c241.82$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No60c221$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes47c214.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes43c210.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.657628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes16c191.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4559923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c179.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes18c169.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6916548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8f…5613backed Yes44c168.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.81931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c162.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.961,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes18c156.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4821448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No51c149.26$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No72c141.79$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7224569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c140.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No58c132.17$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1827463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes51c122.51$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed No63c120$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4517665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ee…4be5backed No53c118.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.961323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c117.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c111.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes39c109.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c105.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No51c105$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes47c101$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.141,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No51c98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0211652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes40c94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.29046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes52c93.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8217338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No49c85.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.513,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa90…488cbacked Yes25c84.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+222.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a5…e304backed No55c83.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.343551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes17c79.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes43c77.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.751,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c72.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes48c72.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No48c65.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes49c65.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5916532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No58c64.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.249656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No48c60.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.157347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No56c60.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.643,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.14850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No69c58.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1929459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes22c57.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes43c53.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9454232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No56c52.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.221,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.932,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes48c50.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2152245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes50c49.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes30c49.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.939133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes39c48.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8835432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No54c45.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.941,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e61…d691backed Yes45c44.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-70%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked No56c44.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.398636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes44c44.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.43946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9641…5385backed Yes48c41.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No55c33.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.256265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c9…d3b7backed No61c32.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.983560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked No75c32.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.975271.2%37 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No54c31.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes52c25.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes40c24.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.043452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No69c20.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.369055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed No72c20.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.627714.3%11 W · 66 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No70c19.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e7…3de8backed No53c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.933534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d1c…7fb5backed No74c17.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+210.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.