Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295c19db166ea7e8be76e56749f37e72f114e99d29c99eeb5a21583e937a2fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 29c | 729.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.01 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 40c | 573.24$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 77c | 517.24$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 476.24$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 73c | 456$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 49c | 419.54$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 77c | 385.93$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 354.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 341.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 340.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 336.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 305.6$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 301.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 75c | 299.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 296.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 292.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 266.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 23c | 262.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 245.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 215.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 199.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 184.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 43c | 170.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 56c | 150.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 140.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 29c | 139.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 138.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 133.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 128.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 127.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 126.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 124.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 70c | 119.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 118.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 56c | 117$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 102.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 74c | 101.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 101$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 100.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 33c | 100.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 54c | 99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 48c | 94.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 25c | 81.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 75.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 73.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 71.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 32c | 69.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 29c | 68.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 21c | 67.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 39c | 63.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 36c | 63.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 62.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 62.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 30c | 58.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 36c | 56.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…e0d3backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 53.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 39c | 52.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed Yes | 31c | 47.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 47.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 63c | 47.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 39c | 44.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 42.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…4be5backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 37.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 31c | 36.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…f9c6backed No | 73c | 36.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 31c | 36.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 77c | 34.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 73c | 34.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…c965backed No | 75c | 30.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 74c | 30.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…8693backed No | 73c | 28.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 28.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 72c | 25.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 75c | 25.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a3b1backed No | 72c | 25.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 73c | 23.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 22.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…7fb5backed No | 74c | 21.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 52c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 71c | 20.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.