Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc240fc45c39e81e80505f8662385e0414a822bac1e013e5e519de5e1662f541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,101 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 17c | 1,782$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.05 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 1,232$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.87 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 41c | 1,122$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 1,120$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 954.96$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 832.86$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.6 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 18c | 826.27$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 16c | 740.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 729.35$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 720.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 680.06$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 29c | 639.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 571.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 541.82$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 492.24$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 27c | 468.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 467.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 35c | 451.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 14c | 450$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 4c | 403.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 29c | 401.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 377.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 369$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 30c | 338$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 323.13$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 299.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 287.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes | 25c | 281.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 269.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 68c | 251.09$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 52c | 250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked No | 69c | 249.97$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 34c | 234.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 234$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 11c | 200.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 186.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 179.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 179.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 35c | 175.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 27c | 166.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 15c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 17c | 159.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 155.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 18c | 145.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 34c | 144.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…f5f5backed Yes | 32c | 144$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes | 61c | 142.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 16c | 142.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 71c | 141.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 22c | 139.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 137.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 74c | 135.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 28c | 135.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 23c | 127.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes | 36c | 122.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 122.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 37c | 122.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 120.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 23c | 114.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…d1aabacked No | 70c | 113.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 108.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 14c | 106.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 27c | 104.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 103.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 100.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 100.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 26c | 94.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes | 35c | 90.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 28c | 88.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c0…0b47backed Yes | 29c | 85.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 23c | 84.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 73c | 81.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…0b11backed No | 73c | 81.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 19c | 80.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 26c | 77.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…8f10backed Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 34c | 76.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 22c | 73.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 41c | 73.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 31c | 69.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…5a26backed No | 68c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…13cdbacked Yes | 37c | 67.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 66.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 21c | 65.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 28c | 63.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.