TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,101 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes17c1,782$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.0510120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes24c1,232$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes41c1,122$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.71747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes18c1,120$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes19c954.96$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c832.86$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes18c826.27$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.632814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes16c740.46$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c729.35$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c720.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c680.06$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.181,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes29c639.71$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes26c571.29$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8861821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c541.82$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.661,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No77c492.24$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes27c468.56$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes32c467.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8633139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes35c451.22$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.31,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes14c450$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes4c403.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.413330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes29c401.63$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6835018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c377.09$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.251,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes37c369$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes30c338$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c323.13$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes19c299.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.381,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c287.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes25c281.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes21c269.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8618316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No68c251.09$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.021,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes52c250$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.58834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8c…2600backed Yes19c250$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked No69c249.97$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.495100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes34c234.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes30c234$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes11c200.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.814736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c186.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.743,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes19c180$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes11c179.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0735232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c179.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.371,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes35c175.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes27c166.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes28c165$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.211038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes15c160$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.414915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes17c159.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0816651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes30c155.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0718337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes18c145.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.116627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Yes34c144.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…f5f5backed Yes32c144$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes61c142.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes16c142.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3819617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No71c141.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4833450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes22c139.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes11c137.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.773,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No74c135.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes28c135.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.85733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes12c130$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.441046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ff5…3489backed Yes23c127.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes36c122.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.711729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes24c122.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes37c122.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No52c120.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.741,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes27c118$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5220144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes23c114.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked No70c113.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.681662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes21c108.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes14c106.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes27c104.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes31c103.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes37c100.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4729459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c100.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.383,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4211145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Yes26c94.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.786913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes35c90.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4201…007fbacked Yes28c88.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.71816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-60.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa29d…747bbacked Yes28c88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.073511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+208%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52c0…0b47backed Yes29c85.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes23c84.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.559529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No73c81.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.199756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf751…0b11backed No73c81.45$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Yes19c80.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.16163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes26c77.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.949836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes26c76.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes34c76.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8913930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed Yes22c73.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes41c73.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes31c69.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.546719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc2…5a26backed No68c68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd68…13cdbacked Yes37c67.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+269.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c66.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes21c65.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.854535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes28c63.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.696121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.